Value bet: USD Casatese to win @ 2.45 – our chance 45% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultUSD Casatese to win ✗45% · @2.45
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗54% · fair 1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.25
Pavia vs USD Casatese: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Pavia welcome USD Casatese for a Serie D Girone D fixture on Sunday 25 October (14:30 WAT). In the table, Pavia are 12th, lower half, on 14 points after 11 matches; USD Casatese are 5th (upper half) with 19.
Current form
Pavia, last 5: LDLLD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Pistoiese, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
USD Casatese, last 5: LWLWW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Pro Patria, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours USD Casatese, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.5 for Pavia.
Head to head
When they last met (19 Apr 2026) it ended USD Casatese 1–0 Pavia.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Pavia 1.1 xG, USD Casatese 1.3 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 46%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Pavia 33%, draw 23%, USD Casatese 45%.
Price worth noting: USD Casatese to win @2.45 – the bookmaker implies 41%, our ratings say 45%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (55%, odds 1.80). Most likely score in line with that pick: Pavia 1–1 USD Casatese. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Pavia33%fair 3.07 · @2.60
Draw23%fair 4.36 · @3.10
USD Casatese45%fair 2.25 · @2.45
2.38Expected goals
1.07Pavia xG
1.32USD Casatese xG
46%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–09%
1–29%
0–28%
From our goals model: Pavia 1.1 – 1.3 USD Casatese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Pavia vs USD Casatese?
On our numbers Pavia have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 23% and USD Casatese 45%.
How many goals will there be in Pavia vs USD Casatese?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pavia vs USD Casatese?
Our predicted score is Pavia 1–1 USD Casatese, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Pavia vs USD Casatese?
Pavia vs USD Casatese (Serie D Girone D) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
