Pavia vs Pro Patria: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 1 November the Serie D Girone D brings Pavia against Pro Patria. Kick-off: 14:30 WAT. In the table, Pavia are 12th, lower half, on 14 points after 11 matches; Pro Patria are 3rd (among the top four) with 21.
Current form
Pavia, last 5: WLDLL Their latest outing: 3–1 win over USD Casatese, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Pro Patria, last 5: DDWWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Leon, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Pro Patria, collecting 2.0 points per game to 0.8 for Pavia.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Pavia 1.0 xG, Pro Patria 1.2 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Pavia 33%, draw 23%, Pro Patria 44%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.82.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.27). Most likely score in line with that pick: Pavia 1–1 Pro Patria. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Pavia33%fair 3.01 · @2.95
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.15
Pro Patria44%fair 2.28 · @2.29
2.27Expected goals
1.03Pavia xG
1.24Pro Patria xG
52%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–113%
1–011%
0–010%
1–28%
0–28%
From our goals model: Pavia 1.0 – 1.2 Pro Patria expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pro Patria to win✗
44%
2.28
2.29
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.92
1.82
Draw no bet
Pro Patria (draw no bet)✗
57%
1.76
–
Asian handicap
Pavia +1 (Asian handicap)✓
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
68%
1.47
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.27
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
First team to score
Pro Patria to score first✗
49%
2.04
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pro Patria / FT Pro Patria✗
24%
4.24
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.22
–
Recent results
Pavia – last 6
WLDLLD
25 Oct
vs USD Casatese
3–1
W
18 Oct
@ Pistoiese
0–1
L
11 Oct
vs Varesina
2–2
D
7 Oct
vs Sant'Angelo
1–3
L
4 Oct
@ Correggese
1–2
L
27 Sep
vs Arconatese
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Pro Patria – last 6
DDWWWD
28 Oct
@ Leon
1–1
D
25 Oct
vs Correggese
1–1
D
18 Oct
@ USD Casatese
2–1
W
11 Oct
vs Sant'Angelo
1–0
W
7 Oct
@ Città di Varese
5–2
W
4 Oct
@ Varesina
0–0
D
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pavia and Pro Patria.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.27.
Who will win Pavia vs Pro Patria?
On our numbers Pavia have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Pro Patria 44%.
How many goals will there be in Pavia vs Pro Patria?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pavia vs Pro Patria?
Our predicted score is Pavia 1–1 Pro Patria, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Pavia vs Pro Patria?
Pavia vs Pro Patria (Serie D Girone D) kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
