Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.14
Mexico vs Peru: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Peru travel to face Mexico on Wednesday 30 September in the Friendlies, with Sports Illustrated Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 02:00 WAT.
Current form
Mexico, last 5: DLWWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Colombia, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 5. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Peru, last 4: LLWD Their latest outing: 1–4 defeat to USA, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Mexico, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.0 for Peru.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mexico 2.0 xG, Peru 0.7 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 49%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mexico 69%, draw 18%, Peru 13%.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.50.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Mexico to win (69%, odds 1.36). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mexico 1–0 Peru. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mexico69%fair 1.45 · @1.36
Draw18%fair 5.58 · @4.20
Peru13%fair 7.62 · @7.50
2.64Expected goals
1.96Mexico xG
0.68Peru xG
49%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
2–014%
1–19%
2–19%
3–09%
0–07%
From our goals model: Mexico 2.0 – 0.7 Peru expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mexico to win✗
69%
1.45
1.36
Double chance
Mexico or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.07
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.96
1.50
Draw no bet
Mexico (draw no bet)
84%
1.19
–
Asian handicap
Mexico -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
Mexico to score first✗
69%
1.45
–
Half-time result
Mexico ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mexico / FT Mexico✗
44%
2.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.14
–
Recent results
Mexico – last 6
DLWWWW
27 Sep
vs Colombia
1–1
D
6 Jul
vs England
2–3
L
1 Jul
vs Ecuador
2–0
W
25 Jun
@ Czechia
3–0
W
19 Jun
vs South Korea
1–0
W
11 Jun
vs South Africa
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Peru – last 4
LLWD
26 Sep
@ USA
1–4
L
9 Jun
vs Spain
1–3
L
6 Jun
@ Haiti
2–1
W
31 Mar
vs Honduras
2–2
D
1.5Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mexico and Peru.
Our pick is Mexico to win with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Mexico vs Peru?
On our numbers Mexico have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Peru 13%.
How many goals will there be in Mexico vs Peru?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mexico vs Peru?
Our predicted score is Mexico 1–0 Peru, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Mexico vs Peru?
Mexico vs Peru (Friendlies) kicks off on Wednesday 30 September 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Sports Illustrated Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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