USA v Chile Prediction & Expected Goals (30 Sep) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultUSA to win ✓68% · @1.36

Double chanceUSA or draw ✓90% · @1.11

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.73

GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓70% · fair 1.42

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.82

USA vs Chile: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

USA welcome Chile to Snapdragon Stadium for a Friendlies fixture on Wednesday 30 September (01:00 WAT).

Current form

USA, last 5: WLWLW Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Peru, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 4 won, 1 lost from 5. 2.5 goals per outing makes them dangerous.

Chile, last 5: LWLLW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Canada, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.6 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.

Momentum favours USA, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.2 for Chile.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give USA 2.6 xG, Chile 1.0 xG – a total near 3.6. That is an open game on paper: 70% for three or more goals, 62% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – USA 68%, draw 21%, Chile 10%.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.73.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.73 – the bookmaker implies 58%, our ratings say 62%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was USA to win (68%, odds 1.36). Most likely score in line with that pick: USA 2–1 Chile. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

USA68%fair 1.46 · @1.36

Draw21%fair 4.73 · @4.40

Chile10%fair 9.53 · @6.00

3.63Expected goals

2.59USA xG

1.04Chile xG

62%Both score

70%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–19%

2–09%

3–18%

3–08%

1–17%

1–07%

From our goals model: USA 2.6 – 1.0 Chile expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	USA to win ✓	68%	1.46	1.36
Double chance	USA or draw ✓	90%	1.12	1.11
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	62%	1.61	1.73 ▲
Draw no bet	USA (draw no bet) ✓	87%	1.15	–
Asian handicap	USA -1 (Asian handicap) ✓	63%	1.59	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	88%	1.14	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	70%	1.42	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	51%	1.97	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✗	70%	1.43	–
First team to score	USA to score first	70%	1.44	–
Half-time result	USA ahead at half-time ✗	53%	1.89	–
Half-time / full-time	HT USA / FT USA ✗	48%	2.09	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	9%	10.82	–

USA – last 6

WLWLWW

26 Sep	vs Peru	4–1	W
7 Jul	vs Belgium	1–4	L
2 Jul	vs Bosnia & Herzegovina	2–0	W
26 Jun	@ Türkiye	2–3	L
19 Jun	vs Australia	2–0	W
13 Jun	vs Paraguay	4–1	W

2.5Scored / game

1.5Conceded / game

67%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Chile – last 5

LWLLW

27 Sep	@ Canada	0–1	L
9 Jun	@ Congo DR	2–1	W
6 Jun	@ Portugal	1–2	L
30 Mar	@ New Zealand	1–4	L
27 Mar	vs Cape Verde Islands	4–2	W

1.6Scored / game

2.0Conceded / game

80%Both scored

80%Over 2.5

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for USA vs Chile?

Our pick is USA to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.

Who will win USA vs Chile?

On our numbers USA have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Chile 10%.

How many goals will there be in USA vs Chile?

We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for USA vs Chile?

Our predicted score is USA 2–1 Chile, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.

When is USA vs Chile?

USA vs Chile (Friendlies) kicks off on Wednesday 30 September 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Snapdragon Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

USA v Chile: numbers & prediction

USA

Chile

USA to win