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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Fátima v Vinhais: numbers & prediction

Taça De Portugal · Portugal

Fátima

LLWWD
4–1
FT

Vinhais

LLLL
Fátima 72%Draw 19%Vinhais 9% Expected goals 2.90 – 1.10
72%
Betarazi pick

Fátima to win

Strong pick · fair odds 1.39 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓

7/10Rating
1.22Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.50 – our chance 57% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +43%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultFátima to win ✓72% · @1.22
Double chanceFátima or draw ✓91% · @1.02
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @2.50
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.80

Fátima vs Vinhais: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Vinhais travel to face Fátima on Sunday 20 September in the Taça De Portugal – the ball rolls at 15:00 WAT.

Current form

Fátima, last 5: LLWWD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Oliveira Hospital, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.

Vinhais, last 4: LLLL Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to Vila Meã, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.

Momentum favours Fátima, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.0 for Vinhais.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Fátima 2.9 xG, Vinhais 1.1 xG – a total near 4.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 76% and GG at 57%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Fátima 72%, draw 19%, Vinhais 9%.
  • GG/NG: GG (57%) at 2.50.
  • Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.50 – the bookmaker implies 40%, our ratings say 57%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Fátima to win (72%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Fátima 2–1 Vinhais. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Fátima72%fair 1.39 · @1.22
Draw19%fair 5.33 · @4.60
Vinhais9%fair 10.73 · @15.00
4.00Expected goals
2.90Fátima xG
1.10Vinhais xG
57%Both score
76%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–18%
3–18%
2–08%
3–07%
4–16%
1–16%

From our goals model: Fátima 2.9 – 1.1 Vinhais expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultFátima to win ✓72%1.391.22
Double chanceFátima or draw ✓91%1.101.02
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓57%1.742.50 ▲
Draw no betFátima (draw no bet) ✓89%1.13–
Asian handicapFátima -1 (Asian handicap) ✓68%1.48–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓91%1.10–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓76%1.31–
Over/under 3.5 goalsOver 3.5 goals ✓57%1.77–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✗63%1.59–
First team to scoreFátima to score first71%1.41–
Half-time resultFátima ahead at half-time ✓56%1.78–
Half-time / full-timeHT Fátima / FT Fátima ✓51%1.94–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8%11.80–

Recent results

Fátima – last 6

LLWWDL
13 Sepvs Oliveira Hospital0–1L
6 Sep@ Os Marialvas0–3L
29 Augvs Benfica Castelo Branco3–1W
23 Augvs Atlético Malveira5–0W
16 Aug@ O Elvas1–1D
29 Marvs Oliveira Hospital0–2L
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Vinhais – last 4

LLLL
13 Sep@ Vila Meã0–4L
6 Sepvs Chaves II1–2L
23 Aug@ Tirsense0–3L
16 Augvs Maria da Fonte0–1L
0.3Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
75%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Fátima and Vinhais.

Fátima vs Vinhais head-to-head page →

More Taça De Portugal predictions

League hub
FT Fafe4 Lajense0 169%1.25X20%4.75211%10.00 0.9–0.1xG 1Fafe to win 69%@1.25 ✓
FT Cinfães0 Leixoes4 110%7.00X23%3.90268%1.36 0.0–1.0xG 2Leixoes to win 68%@1.36 ✓
FT Bragança6 Celoricense1 161%1.80X25%3.10214%4.00 1.8–0.7xG 1XBragança or draw 86%@1.20 ✓
FT Mortágua0 Leça2 118%4.60X22%3.10260%1.70 2Leça to win 60%@1.70 ✓
FT Ponte da Barca0 Amarante2 110%15.00X17%5.00273%1.18 2Amarante to win 73%@1.18 ✓
FT FC Serpa1 Louletano1 AET 1–2 117%3.75X24%3.00259%1.85 0.4–1.1xG X2Louletano or draw 83%@1.22 ✓
FT Sintrense0 AVS2 117%4.80X21%3.40263%1.60 1.4–2.6xG GGBoth teams to score 65%@1.75 ✗
FT Paredes5 Maria da Fonte1 171%1.22X17%4.75212%13.00 1.9–0.6xG 1Paredes to win 71%@1.22 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Fátima vs Vinhais?

Our pick is Fátima to win with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Fátima vs Vinhais?

On our numbers Fátima have a 72% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Vinhais 9%.

How many goals will there be in Fátima vs Vinhais?

We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Fátima vs Vinhais?

Our predicted score is Fátima 2–1 Vinhais, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.

When is Fátima vs Vinhais?

Fátima vs Vinhais (Taça De Portugal) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.