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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Paredes v Maria da Fonte: numbers & prediction

Taça De Portugal · Portugal

Paredes

WWWLW
5–1
FT

Maria da Fonte

LLWLW
Paredes 71%Draw 17%Maria da Fonte 12% Expected goals 1.91 – 0.59
71%
Betarazi pick

Paredes to win

Strong pick · fair odds 1.41 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓

7/10Rating
1.22Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.25 – our chance 50% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultParedes to win ✓71% · @1.22
Double chanceParedes or draw ✓88% · @1.03
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @2.25
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.31

Paredes vs Maria da Fonte: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Maria da Fonte travel to face Paredes on Sunday 20 September in the Taça De Portugal – the ball rolls at 16:00 WAT.

Current form

Paredes, last 5: WWWLW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Fafe, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.

Maria da Fonte, last 5: LLWLW Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to SC Braga B, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.

Momentum favours Paredes, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.0 for Maria da Fonte.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Paredes 1.9 xG, Maria da Fonte 0.6 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 50%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Paredes 71%, draw 17%, Maria da Fonte 12%.
  • GG/NG: GG (50%) at 2.25.
  • Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.25 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 50%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Paredes to win (71%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Paredes 1–0 Maria da Fonte. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Paredes71%fair 1.41 · @1.22
Draw17%fair 5.95 · @4.75
Maria da Fonte12%fair 8.01 · @13.00
2.50Expected goals
1.91Paredes xG
0.59Maria da Fonte xG
50%Both score
46%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–016%
2–015%
3–010%
1–19%
2–19%
0–08%

From our goals model: Paredes 1.9 – 0.6 Maria da Fonte expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultParedes to win ✓71%1.411.22
Double chanceParedes or draw ✓88%1.141.03
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓50%1.992.25 ▲
Draw no betParedes (draw no bet) ✓85%1.18–
Asian handicapParedes -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓69%1.45–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓71%1.40–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗54%1.84–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76%1.32–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✗89%1.12–
First team to scoreParedes to score first70%1.43–
Half-time resultParedes ahead at half-time ✓48%2.08–
Half-time / full-timeHT Paredes / FT Paredes ✓44%2.26–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9%11.31–

Recent results

Paredes – last 6

WWWLWW
13 Sepvs Fafe2–1W
5 Sep@ Varzim1–0W
30 Aug@ Ermesinde3–1W
23 Augvs Leça1–2L
15 Aug@ Pacos Ferreira1–0W
7 Augvs Guimaraes B3–1W
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Maria da Fonte – last 6

LLWLWL
13 Sepvs SC Braga B0–4L
6 Sep@ Brito1–2L
30 Augvs Uniao Nogueirense1–0W
23 Augvs Celoricense0–1L
16 Aug@ Vinhais1–0W
31 Jul@ Fafe0–2L
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Paredes and Maria da Fonte.

Paredes vs Maria da Fonte head-to-head page →

More Taça De Portugal predictions

League hub
FT Fafe4 Lajense0 169%1.25X20%4.75211%10.00 0.9–0.1xG 1Fafe to win 69%@1.25 ✓
FT Cinfães0 Leixoes4 110%7.00X23%3.90268%1.36 0.0–1.0xG 2Leixoes to win 68%@1.36 ✓
FT Fátima4 Vinhais1 172%1.22X19%4.6029%15.00 2.9–1.1xG 1Fátima to win 72%@1.22 ✓
FT Bragança6 Celoricense1 161%1.80X25%3.10214%4.00 1.8–0.7xG 1XBragança or draw 86%@1.20 ✓
FT Mortágua0 Leça2 118%4.60X22%3.10260%1.70 2Leça to win 60%@1.70 ✓
FT Ponte da Barca0 Amarante2 110%15.00X17%5.00273%1.18 2Amarante to win 73%@1.18 ✓
FT FC Serpa1 Louletano1 AET 1–2 117%3.75X24%3.00259%1.85 0.4–1.1xG X2Louletano or draw 83%@1.22 ✓
FT Sintrense0 AVS2 117%4.80X21%3.40263%1.60 1.4–2.6xG GGBoth teams to score 65%@1.75 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Paredes vs Maria da Fonte?

Our pick is Paredes to win with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Paredes vs Maria da Fonte?

On our numbers Paredes have a 71% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Maria da Fonte 12%.

How many goals will there be in Paredes vs Maria da Fonte?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Paredes vs Maria da Fonte?

Our predicted score is Paredes 1–0 Maria da Fonte, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.

When is Paredes vs Maria da Fonte?

Paredes vs Maria da Fonte (Taça De Portugal) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.