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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

FC Serpa v Louletano: numbers & prediction

Taça De Portugal · Portugal

FC Serpa

DDWWL
1–1
FTAET 1–2

Louletano

LWWWL
FC Serpa 17%Draw 24%Louletano 59% Expected goals 0.38 – 1.12
83%
Betarazi pick

Louletano or draw

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓

10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2

Value bet: Louletano to win @ 1.85 – our chance 59% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultLouletano to win ✗59% · @1.85
Double chanceLouletano or draw ✓83% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗56% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗25% · fair 4.00

FC Serpa vs Louletano: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

FC Serpa welcome Louletano for a Taça De Portugal fixture on Sunday 20 September (15:00 WAT).

Current form

FC Serpa, last 5: DDWWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Lagoa, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.

Louletano, last 5: LWWWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to União Santarém, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Head to head

When they last met (15 Mar 2026) it ended Louletano 2–1 FC Serpa.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give FC Serpa 0.4 xG, Louletano 1.1 xG – a total near 1.5. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 81% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – FC Serpa 17%, draw 24%, Louletano 59%.
  • Lower-risk option: Louletano or draw (83%) at 1.22.
  • GG/NG: NG (56%) at 1.75.
  • Price worth noting: Louletano to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 59%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Louletano or draw (83%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: FC Serpa 0–1 Louletano. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

FC Serpa17%fair 5.84 · @3.75
Draw24%fair 4.24 · @3.00
Louletano59%fair 1.69 · @1.85
1.50Expected goals
0.38FC Serpa xG
1.12Louletano xG
44%Both score
19%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–125%
0–022%
0–214%
1–19%
1–08%
1–25%

From our goals model: FC Serpa 0.4 – 1.1 Louletano expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultLouletano to win ✗59%1.691.85 ▲
Double chanceLouletano or draw ✓83%1.211.22
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score ✗56%1.801.75
Draw no betLouletano (draw no bet)78%1.29–
Asian handicapFC Serpa +1 (Asian handicap) ✓65%1.53–
Over/under 1.5 goalsUnder 1.5 goals ✗56%1.79–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓81%1.24–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓93%1.07–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓98%1.02–
First team to scoreLouletano to score first ✓58%1.72–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗56%1.78–
Half-time / full-timeHT Louletano / FT Louletano ✗31%3.20–
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗25%4.00–

Recent results

FC Serpa – last 6

DDWWLL
13 Sep@ Lagoa0–0D
6 Sepvs 1º Dezembro1–1D
29 Augvs O Grandolense2–0W
16 Augvs Vitoria Setubal4–2W
22 Marvs Juventude Évora0–3L
15 Mar@ Louletano1–2L
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Louletano – last 6

LWWWLD
12 Sepvs União Santarém1–2L
6 Sepvs Lusitano Évora 19111–0W
30 Aug@ Castrense1–0W
23 Aug@ Caldas4–2W
15 Augvs CF Os Belenenses1–3L
8 Aug@ Oliveirense0–0D
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

15 Mar 2026Louletano v FC Serpa2–1
FC Serpa vs Louletano head-to-head page →

More Taça De Portugal predictions

League hub
FT Fafe4 Lajense0 169%1.25X20%4.75211%10.00 0.9–0.1xG 1Fafe to win 69%@1.25 ✓
FT Cinfães0 Leixoes4 110%7.00X23%3.90268%1.36 0.0–1.0xG 2Leixoes to win 68%@1.36 ✓
FT Fátima4 Vinhais1 172%1.22X19%4.6029%15.00 2.9–1.1xG 1Fátima to win 72%@1.22 ✓
FT Bragança6 Celoricense1 161%1.80X25%3.10214%4.00 1.8–0.7xG 1XBragança or draw 86%@1.20 ✓
FT Mortágua0 Leça2 118%4.60X22%3.10260%1.70 2Leça to win 60%@1.70 ✓
FT Ponte da Barca0 Amarante2 110%15.00X17%5.00273%1.18 2Amarante to win 73%@1.18 ✓
FT Sintrense0 AVS2 117%4.80X21%3.40263%1.60 1.4–2.6xG GGBoth teams to score 65%@1.75 ✗
FT Paredes5 Maria da Fonte1 171%1.22X17%4.75212%13.00 1.9–0.6xG 1Paredes to win 71%@1.22 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for FC Serpa vs Louletano?

Our pick is Louletano or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win FC Serpa vs Louletano?

On our numbers FC Serpa have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Louletano 59%.

How many goals will there be in FC Serpa vs Louletano?

We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 19% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for FC Serpa vs Louletano?

Our predicted score is FC Serpa 0–1 Louletano, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.5 goals in total.

When is FC Serpa vs Louletano?

FC Serpa vs Louletano (Taça De Portugal) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.