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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Bragança v Celoricense: numbers & prediction

Taça De Portugal · Portugal

Bragança

WWWDW
6–1
FT

Celoricense

LWWWD
Bragança 61%Draw 25%Celoricense 14% Expected goals 1.77 – 0.73
86%
Betarazi pick

Bragança or draw

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓

10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1

Value bet: Bragança to win @ 1.80 – our chance 61% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultBragança to win ✓61% · @1.80
Double chanceBragança or draw ✓86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.66

Bragança vs Celoricense: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

15:00 WAT, Sunday 20 September: Bragança v Celoricense in the Taça De Portugal.

Current form

Bragança, last 5: WWWDW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Ponte da Barca, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

Celoricense, last 5: LWWWD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Chaves II, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Bragança 1.8 xG, Celoricense 0.7 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 52%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Bragança 61%, draw 25%, Celoricense 14%.
  • Lower-risk option: Bragança or draw (86%) at 1.20.
  • GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.85.
  • Price worth noting: Bragança to win @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 61%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Bragança or draw (86%, odds 1.20 – longer than our fair 1.16, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Bragança 1–0 Celoricense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Bragança61%fair 1.63 · @1.80
Draw25%fair 4.01 · @3.10
Celoricense14%fair 7.23 · @4.00
2.50Expected goals
1.77Bragança xG
0.73Celoricense xG
52%Both score
46%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–08%

From our goals model: Bragança 1.8 – 0.7 Celoricense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultBragança to win ✓61%1.631.80 ▲
Double chanceBragança or draw ✓86%1.161.20
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓52%1.931.85
Draw no betBragança (draw no bet) ✓82%1.23–
Asian handicapBragança -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓62%1.60–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓71%1.40–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗54%1.84–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76%1.32–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✗89%1.12–
First team to scoreBragança to score first65%1.54–
Half-time resultBragança ahead at half-time ✓44%2.29–
Half-time / full-timeHT Bragança / FT Bragança ✓39%2.56–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9%10.66–

Recent results

Bragança – last 6

WWWDWL
13 Sepvs Ponte da Barca3–0W
6 Sep@ Maia Lidador1–0W
30 Aug@ Rebordelo4–0W
23 Augvs SC Braga B0–0D
16 Aug@ Brito3–2W
31 May@ Leça0–1L
1.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Celoricense – last 6

LWWWDD
13 Sep@ Chaves II0–1L
6 Sepvs Tirsense2–1W
30 Augvs Pevidem1–0W
23 Aug@ Maria da Fonte1–0W
16 Augvs Montalegre0–0D
22 Marvs AR São Martinho0–0D
0.7Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Bragança and Celoricense.

Bragança vs Celoricense head-to-head page →

More Taça De Portugal predictions

League hub
FT Fafe4 Lajense0 169%1.25X20%4.75211%10.00 0.9–0.1xG 1Fafe to win 69%@1.25 ✓
FT Cinfães0 Leixoes4 110%7.00X23%3.90268%1.36 0.0–1.0xG 2Leixoes to win 68%@1.36 ✓
FT Fátima4 Vinhais1 172%1.22X19%4.6029%15.00 2.9–1.1xG 1Fátima to win 72%@1.22 ✓
FT Mortágua0 Leça2 118%4.60X22%3.10260%1.70 2Leça to win 60%@1.70 ✓
FT Ponte da Barca0 Amarante2 110%15.00X17%5.00273%1.18 2Amarante to win 73%@1.18 ✓
FT FC Serpa1 Louletano1 AET 1–2 117%3.75X24%3.00259%1.85 0.4–1.1xG X2Louletano or draw 83%@1.22 ✓
FT Sintrense0 AVS2 117%4.80X21%3.40263%1.60 1.4–2.6xG GGBoth teams to score 65%@1.75 ✗
FT Paredes5 Maria da Fonte1 171%1.22X17%4.75212%13.00 1.9–0.6xG 1Paredes to win 71%@1.22 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Bragança vs Celoricense?

Our pick is Bragança or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Bragança vs Celoricense?

On our numbers Bragança have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Celoricense 14%.

How many goals will there be in Bragança vs Celoricense?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Bragança vs Celoricense?

Our predicted score is Bragança 1–0 Celoricense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.

When is Bragança vs Celoricense?

Bragança vs Celoricense (Taça De Portugal) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.