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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

AD Marco 09 v Maia Lidador: numbers & prediction

Taça De Portugal · Portugal

AD Marco 09

WDWWL
1–0
FT

Maia Lidador

DLDLL
AD Marco 09 73%Draw 20%Maia Lidador 7% Expected goals 1.42 – 0.17
82%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.33 · Won ✓

9/10Rating
1.33Odds
U2.5

Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.90 – our chance 64% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultAD Marco 09 to win ✓73% · @1.27
Double chanceAD Marco 09 or draw ✓93% · @1.04
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓63% · @1.53
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓29% · fair 3.44

AD Marco 09 vs Maia Lidador: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Maia Lidador travel to face AD Marco 09 on Sunday 20 September in the Taça De Portugal – the ball rolls at 17:00 WAT.

Current form

AD Marco 09, last 5: WDWWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Guimaraes B, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

Maia Lidador, last 5: DLDLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Montalegre, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.4 goals a game.

Momentum favours AD Marco 09, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.4 for Maia Lidador.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give AD Marco 09 1.4 xG, Maia Lidador 0.2 xG – a total near 1.6. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 64% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – AD Marco 09 73%, draw 20%, Maia Lidador 7%.
  • GG/NG: NG (63%) at 1.53.
  • Price worth noting: Under 2.5 goals @1.90 – the bookmaker implies 53%, our ratings say 64%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (82%, odds 1.33 – longer than our fair 1.23, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: AD Marco 09 1–0 Maia Lidador. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

AD Marco 0973%fair 1.37 · @1.27
Draw20%fair 5.05 · @4.33
Maia Lidador7%fair 14.31 · @11.00
1.59Expected goals
1.42AD Marco 09 xG
0.17Maia Lidador xG
37%Both score
36%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–029%
2–021%
0–020%
3–010%
1–15%
4–03%

From our goals model: AD Marco 09 1.4 – 0.2 Maia Lidador expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultAD Marco 09 to win ✓73%1.371.27
Double chanceAD Marco 09 or draw ✓93%1.081.04
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score ✓63%1.591.53
Draw no betAD Marco 09 (draw no bet) ✓91%1.10–
Asian handicapAD Marco 09 -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓70%1.42–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗60%1.661.28
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓64%1.551.90 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82%1.231.33 ▲
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓92%1.091.11
First team to scoreAD Marco 09 to score first ✓71%1.40–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗52%1.92–
Half-time / full-timeHT AD Marco 09 / FT AD Marco 09 ✓43%2.34–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓29%3.44–

Recent results

AD Marco 09 – last 6

WDWWLW
12 Sepvs Guimaraes B1–0W
6 Sep@ São João Ver0–0D
30 Aug@ Régua1–0W
23 Augvs Vianense2–0W
16 Aug@ Varzim1–2L
9 Augvs Pacos Ferreira2–1W
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Maia Lidador – last 5

DLDLL
13 Sep@ Montalegre1–1D
6 Sepvs Bragança0–1L
30 Augvs Vila Meã0–0D
23 Augvs Ponte da Barca0–1L
16 Aug@ SC Braga B1–2L
0.4Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between AD Marco 09 and Maia Lidador.

AD Marco 09 vs Maia Lidador head-to-head page →

More Taça De Portugal predictions

League hub
FT Fafe4 Lajense0 169%1.25X20%4.75211%10.00 0.9–0.1xG 1Fafe to win 69%@1.25 ✓
FT Cinfães0 Leixoes4 110%7.00X23%3.90268%1.36 0.0–1.0xG 2Leixoes to win 68%@1.36 ✓
FT Fátima4 Vinhais1 172%1.22X19%4.6029%15.00 2.9–1.1xG 1Fátima to win 72%@1.22 ✓
FT Bragança6 Celoricense1 161%1.80X25%3.10214%4.00 1.8–0.7xG 1XBragança or draw 86%@1.20 ✓
FT Mortágua0 Leça2 118%4.60X22%3.10260%1.70 2Leça to win 60%@1.70 ✓
FT Ponte da Barca0 Amarante2 110%15.00X17%5.00273%1.18 2Amarante to win 73%@1.18 ✓
FT FC Serpa1 Louletano1 AET 1–2 117%3.75X24%3.00259%1.85 0.4–1.1xG X2Louletano or draw 83%@1.22 ✓
FT Sintrense0 AVS2 117%4.80X21%3.40263%1.60 1.4–2.6xG GGBoth teams to score 65%@1.75 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for AD Marco 09 vs Maia Lidador?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.

Who will win AD Marco 09 vs Maia Lidador?

On our numbers AD Marco 09 have a 73% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Maia Lidador 7%.

How many goals will there be in AD Marco 09 vs Maia Lidador?

We expect about 1.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 37% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for AD Marco 09 vs Maia Lidador?

Our predicted score is AD Marco 09 1–0 Maia Lidador, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.6 goals in total.

When is AD Marco 09 vs Maia Lidador?

AD Marco 09 vs Maia Lidador (Taça De Portugal) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.