Value bet: New Caledonia to win @ 3.10 – our chance 39% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultNew Caledonia to win ✓39% · @3.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗68% · fair 1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓7% · fair 14.76
Papua New Guinea vs New Caledonia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
08:00 WAT, Thursday 24 September: Papua New Guinea v New Caledonia in the Friendlies.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Papua New Guinea 1.0 xG, New Caledonia 1.0 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 68%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Papua New Guinea 38%, draw 23%, New Caledonia 39%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: New Caledonia to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 39%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (55%, odds 1.75). Most likely score in line with that pick: Papua New Guinea 1–1 New Caledonia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Papua New Guinea38%fair 2.60 · @2.20
Draw23%fair 4.33 · @3.10
New Caledonia39%fair 2.60 · @3.10
2.00Expected goals
1.00Papua New Guinea xG
1.00New Caledonia xG
55%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
0–014%
1–114%
1–014%
0–27%
1–27%
From our goals model: Papua New Guinea 1.0 – 1.0 New Caledonia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
New Caledonia to win✓
39%
2.60
3.10 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.81
1.75
Draw no bet
New Caledonia (draw no bet)✓
50%
2.00
–
Asian handicap
Papua New Guinea +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
59%
1.68
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
95%
1.06
–
First team to score
New Caledonia to score first
43%
2.31
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
2.00
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
22%
4.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
7%
14.76
–
Recent results
Papua New Guinea
No recent results on record.
New Caledonia – last 2
LL
21 Sep
vs Solomon Islands
0–2
L
27 Mar
vs Jamaica
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Papua New Guinea and New Caledonia.
What is the prediction for Papua New Guinea vs New Caledonia?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Papua New Guinea vs New Caledonia?
On our numbers Papua New Guinea have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 23% and New Caledonia 39%.
How many goals will there be in Papua New Guinea vs New Caledonia?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Papua New Guinea vs New Caledonia?
Our predicted score is Papua New Guinea 1–1 New Caledonia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Papua New Guinea vs New Caledonia?
Papua New Guinea vs New Caledonia (Friendlies) kicks off on Thursday 24 September 2026 at 08:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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Netherlands U191
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China3
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Iran1
Romania U191
Hungary U192