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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Morecambe v Darlington 1883: numbers & prediction

FA Cup · England

Morecambe

DWWLW
3–0
FT

Darlington 1883

DWLLL
Morecambe 61%Draw 24%Darlington 1883 15% Expected goals 2.29 – 1.11
85%
Betarazi pick

Morecambe or draw

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓

10/10Rating
1.30Odds
O2.5

Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.80 – our chance 59% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultMorecambe to win ✓61% · @1.62
Double chanceMorecambe or draw ✓85% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · fair 1.92
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓59% · @1.80
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.28

Morecambe vs Darlington 1883: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Morecambe welcome Darlington 1883 for a FA Cup fixture on Saturday 3 October (15:00 WAT).

Current form

Morecambe, last 5: DWWLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Oxford City, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

Darlington 1883, last 5: DWLLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Hebburn Town, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Morecambe, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.2 for Darlington 1883.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Morecambe 2.3 xG, Darlington 1883 1.1 xG – a total near 3.4. That is an open game on paper: 59% for three or more goals, 52% for GG.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Morecambe 61%, draw 24%, Darlington 1883 15%.
  • Lower-risk option: Morecambe or draw (85%) at 1.30.
  • Price worth noting: Over 2.5 goals @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 59%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Morecambe or draw (85%, odds 1.30 – longer than our fair 1.17, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Morecambe 2–1 Darlington 1883. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Morecambe61%fair 1.63 · @1.62
Draw24%fair 4.14 · @3.90
Darlington 188315%fair 6.86 · @4.20
3.39Expected goals
2.29Morecambe xG
1.11Darlington 1883 xG
52%Both score
59%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–110%
2–09%
1–19%
1–08%
3–17%
3–07%

From our goals model: Morecambe 2.3 – 1.1 Darlington 1883 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultMorecambe to win ✓61%1.631.62
Double chanceMorecambe or draw ✓85%1.171.30 ▲
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗52%1.92–
Draw no betMorecambe (draw no bet) ✓81%1.24–
Asian handicapMorecambe -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓64%1.57–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓85%1.17–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓59%1.691.80 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓56%1.78–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓75%1.34–
First team to scoreMorecambe to score first ✓65%1.54–
Half-time resultMorecambe ahead at half-time ✗48%2.10–
Half-time / full-timeHT Morecambe / FT Morecambe ✗42%2.40–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10%10.28–

Recent results

Morecambe – last 6

DWWLWW
26 Sep@ Oxford City1–1D
19 Sepvs Southport2–0W
12 Sepvs Brackley Town3–0W
8 Sep@ Southport1–2L
5 Sepvs Buxton4–0W
31 Aug@ Chester1–0W
2.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Darlington 1883 – last 6

DWLLLW
26 Sepvs Hebburn Town1–1D
19 Sep@ Redcar Town4–2W
12 Sep@ Marine1–2L
8 Sep@ Chorley2–5L
5 Sepvs King's Lynn Town0–2L
31 Aug@ Radcliffe1–0W
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Morecambe and Darlington 1883.

Morecambe vs Darlington 1883 head-to-head page →

More FA Cup predictions

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FT Barton Town Old Boys1 Chorley4 122%5.00X16%5.00262%1.40 0.8–1.7xG 2Chorley to win 62%@1.40 ✓
FT Brackley Town0 Chelmsford City2 140%2.50X23%3.20238%2.50 0.9–0.9xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 63%@1.80 ✓
FT Bury2 Bromsgrove Sporting1 162%1.91X14%3.50224%3.20 2.5–1.5xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 69%@1.50 ✓
FT Bury Town1 Spalding United1 139%2.80X21%3.50240%2.10 2.0–2.0xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 66%@1.67 ✗
FT Buxton0 South Shields2 130%3.00X21%3.50249%2.00 1.6–2.0xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 66%@1.50 ✗
FT Cambridge City1 Alvechurch2 124%3.60X15%3.60262%1.80 1.4–2.3xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 66%@1.53 ✓
FT Chesham United4 Real Bedford3 142%2.15X21%3.40237%2.75 2.3–2.1xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 70%@1.60 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Morecambe vs Darlington 1883?

Our pick is Morecambe or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.

Who will win Morecambe vs Darlington 1883?

On our numbers Morecambe have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Darlington 1883 15%.

How many goals will there be in Morecambe vs Darlington 1883?

We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Morecambe vs Darlington 1883?

Our predicted score is Morecambe 2–1 Darlington 1883, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.

When is Morecambe vs Darlington 1883?

Morecambe vs Darlington 1883 (FA Cup) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.