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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Mafra v Santa Clara: numbers & prediction

Taça De Portugal · Portugal · Estadio Municipal de Mafra

Mafra

DDLWD
2–2
FTAET 3–2

Santa Clara

WDWWD
Mafra 11%Draw 21%Santa Clara 69% Expected goals 1.38 – 3.12
69%
Betarazi pick

Santa Clara to win

Strong pick · fair odds 1.46 · bookmaker 1.40 · Lost ✗

7/10Rating
1.40Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 61% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultSanta Clara to win ✗69% · @1.40
Double chanceSanta Clara or draw ✓89% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @2.00
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–3 ✗8% · fair 12.90

Mafra vs Santa Clara: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

15:00 WAT, Sunday 18 October: Mafra v Santa Clara in the Taça De Portugal, played at Estadio Municipal de Mafra.

Current form

Mafra, last 5: DDLWD Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with CF Os Belenenses, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.

Santa Clara, last 5: WDWWD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Casa Pia, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Santa Clara, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.0 for Mafra.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Mafra 1.4 xG, Santa Clara 3.1 xG – a total near 4.5. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 83% and GG at 61%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Mafra 11%, draw 21%, Santa Clara 69%.
  • GG/NG: GG (61%) at 2.00.
  • Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 61%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Santa Clara to win (69%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mafra 1–3 Santa Clara. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Mafra11%fair 9.51 · @6.50
Draw21%fair 4.78 · @3.80
Santa Clara69%fair 1.46 · @1.40
4.50Expected goals
1.38Mafra xG
3.12Santa Clara xG
61%Both score
83%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–38%
1–27%
1–46%
0–36%
0–25%
2–35%

From our goals model: Mafra 1.4 – 3.1 Santa Clara expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultSanta Clara to win ✗69%1.461.40
Double chanceSanta Clara or draw ✓89%1.121.12
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓61%1.632.00 ▲
Draw no betSanta Clara (draw no bet)87%1.15–
Asian handicapSanta Clara -1 (Asian handicap) ✗65%1.53–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓94%1.07–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓83%1.21–
Over/under 3.5 goalsOver 3.5 goals ✓66%1.52–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓53%1.88–
First team to scoreSanta Clara to score first68%1.46–
Half-time resultSanta Clara ahead at half-time ✗55%1.81–
Half-time / full-timeHT Santa Clara / FT Santa Clara ✗50%2.01–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–3 ✗8%12.90–

Recent results

Mafra – last 6

DDLWDL
11 Octvs CF Os Belenenses2–2D
19 Sepvs Tirsense1–1D
12 Sep@ Oliveirense1–2L
5 Sepvs SC Covilha1–0W
29 Aug@ Atlético Malveira2–2D
22 Aug@ Lusitano Évora 19111–2L
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Santa Clara – last 6

WDWWDW
10 Oct@ Casa Pia1–0W
20 Sepvs SC Braga0–0D
13 Sep@ Arouca2–1W
6 Sepvs Rio Ave4–0W
29 Aug@ Alverca1–1D
23 Augvs Famalicao1–0W
1.5Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Mafra and Santa Clara.

Mafra vs Santa Clara head-to-head page →

More Taça De Portugal predictions

League hub
FT Brito0 Vitória de Sernache1 132%3.00X23%3.00245%2.10 1.7–2.0xG GGBoth teams to score 66%@1.62 ✗
FT Fátima1 Academico Viseu0 114%9.00X17%4.80269%1.25 1.4–3.1xG 2Academico Viseu to win 69%@1.25 ✗
FT Lusitânia Lourosa2 Os Limianos1 176%1.12X17%6.5027%17.00 3.0–1.0xG GGBoth teams to score 57%@2.45 ✓
FT Salgueiros1 Estoril1 Pens 1–4 110%7.50X21%3.90268%1.36 0.4–1.6xG 2Estoril to win 68%@1.36 ✗
FT Tondela0 Alverca0 AET 2–0 128%3.00X23%3.10249%2.10 2.7–3.3xG GGBoth teams to score 71%@1.75 ✗
FT Paredes1 Famalicao0 111%6.00X24%3.75265%1.44 1.7–3.3xG GGBoth teams to score 66%@1.80 ✗
FT CF Os Belenenses3 Arouca3 AET 3–4 119%4.60X19%3.90262%1.55 0.8–1.7xG 2Arouca to win 62%@1.55 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Mafra vs Santa Clara?

Our pick is Santa Clara to win with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.

Who will win Mafra vs Santa Clara?

On our numbers Mafra have a 11% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Santa Clara 69%.

How many goals will there be in Mafra vs Santa Clara?

We expect about 4.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 83% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Mafra vs Santa Clara?

Our predicted score is Mafra 1–3 Santa Clara, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.5 goals in total.

When is Mafra vs Santa Clara?

Mafra vs Santa Clara (Taça De Portugal) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Mafra.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.