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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Tondela v Alverca: numbers & prediction

Taça De Portugal · Portugal

Tondela

WWWWL
0–0
FTAET 2–0

Alverca

WWWLD
Tondela 28%Draw 23%Alverca 49% Expected goals 2.67 – 3.33
71%
Betarazi pick

Both teams to score

Strong pick · fair odds 1.40 · bookmaker 1.75 · Lost ✗

7/10Rating
1.75Odds

Picks by market

ResultAlverca to win ✗49% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗71% · @1.75
GoalsOver 3.5 goals ✗85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–3 ✗5% · fair 18.38

Tondela vs Alverca: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Alverca travel to face Tondela on Sunday 18 October in the Taça De Portugal – the ball rolls at 15:00 WAT.

Current form

Tondela, last 5: WWWWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Torreense, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Alverca, last 5: WWWLD Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Famalicao, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.

Head to head

When they last met (13 Feb 2026) it ended Tondela 1–1 Alverca.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Tondela 2.7 xG, Alverca 3.3 xG – a total near 6.0. That is an open game on paper: 94% for three or more goals, 71% for GG.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Tondela 28%, draw 23%, Alverca 49%.
  • GG/NG: GG (71%) at 1.75.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (71%, odds 1.75 – longer than our fair 1.40, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tondela 2–3 Alverca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Tondela28%fair 3.56 · @3.00
Draw23%fair 4.40 · @3.10
Alverca49%fair 2.03 · @2.10
6.00Expected goals
2.67Tondela xG
3.33Alverca xG
71%Both score
94%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–35%
2–25%
3–35%
2–45%
3–24%
1–34%

From our goals model: Tondela 2.7 – 3.3 Alverca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultAlverca to win ✗49%2.032.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77%1.291.30
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗71%1.401.75 ▲
Draw no betAlverca (draw no bet)64%1.57–
Asian handicapTondela +1.5 (Asian handicap) ✓64%1.56–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗98%1.02–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗94%1.07–
Over/under 3.5 goalsOver 3.5 goals ✗85%1.18–
Over/under 4.5 goalsOver 4.5 goals ✗71%1.40–
First team to scoreAlverca to score first ✗55%1.80–
Half-time resultAlverca ahead at half-time ✗44%2.29–
Half-time / full-timeHT Alverca / FT Alverca ✗35%2.90–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–3 ✗5%18.38–

Recent results

Tondela – last 6

WWWWLL
10 Octvs Torreense1–0W
19 Sep@ Imortal Albufeira5–1W
12 Sep@ Portimonense2–0W
5 Sepvs FC Porto B3–0W
28 Aug@ União de Leiria0–2L
21 Augvs Academica0–2L
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Alverca – last 6

WWWLDL
12 Oct@ Famalicao4–1W
19 Sepvs Rio Ave1–0W
12 Sep@ Nacional3–1W
5 Sepvs SC Braga1–2L
29 Augvs Santa Clara1–1D
22 Aug@ Sporting CP1–3L
1.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

13 Feb 2026Tondela v Alverca1–1
Tondela vs Alverca head-to-head page →

More Taça De Portugal predictions

League hub
FT Brito0 Vitória de Sernache1 132%3.00X23%3.00245%2.10 1.7–2.0xG GGBoth teams to score 66%@1.62 ✗
FT Fátima1 Academico Viseu0 114%9.00X17%4.80269%1.25 1.4–3.1xG 2Academico Viseu to win 69%@1.25 ✗
FT Lusitânia Lourosa2 Os Limianos1 176%1.12X17%6.5027%17.00 3.0–1.0xG GGBoth teams to score 57%@2.45 ✓
FT Mafra2 Santa Clara2 AET 3–2 111%6.50X21%3.80269%1.40 1.4–3.1xG 2Santa Clara to win 69%@1.40 ✗
FT Salgueiros1 Estoril1 Pens 1–4 110%7.50X21%3.90268%1.36 0.4–1.6xG 2Estoril to win 68%@1.36 ✗
FT Paredes1 Famalicao0 111%6.00X24%3.75265%1.44 1.7–3.3xG GGBoth teams to score 66%@1.80 ✗
FT CF Os Belenenses3 Arouca3 AET 3–4 119%4.60X19%3.90262%1.55 0.8–1.7xG 2Arouca to win 62%@1.55 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Tondela vs Alverca?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.

Who will win Tondela vs Alverca?

On our numbers Tondela have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Alverca 49%.

How many goals will there be in Tondela vs Alverca?

We expect about 6.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 94% likely and both teams score 71% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Tondela vs Alverca?

Our predicted score is Tondela 2–3 Alverca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 6.0 goals in total.

When is Tondela vs Alverca?

Tondela vs Alverca (Taça De Portugal) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.