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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

CF Os Belenenses v Arouca: numbers & prediction

Taça De Portugal · Portugal

CF Os Belenenses

DWWWW
3–3
FTAET 3–4

Arouca

WDLDW
CF Os Belenenses 19%Draw 19%Arouca 62% Expected goals 0.77 – 1.73
62%
Betarazi pick

Arouca to win

Good pick · fair odds 1.61 · bookmaker 1.55 · Lost ✗

5/10Rating
1.55Odds

Picks by market

ResultArouca to win ✗62% · @1.55
Double chanceArouca or draw ✓81% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.57

CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Arouca travel to face CF Os Belenenses on Sunday 18 October in the Taça De Portugal – the ball rolls at 19:45 WAT.

Current form

CF Os Belenenses, last 5: DWWWW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Mafra, away. Scoring is no problem – 2.5 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Arouca, last 5: WDLDW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Estrela, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.

Momentum favours CF Os Belenenses, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.3 for Arouca.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give CF Os Belenenses 0.8 xG, Arouca 1.7 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 56%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – CF Os Belenenses 19%, draw 19%, Arouca 62%.
  • Lower-risk option: Arouca or draw (81%) at 1.15.
  • GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.80.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Arouca to win (62%, odds 1.55). Most likely score in line with that pick: CF Os Belenenses 0–1 Arouca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

CF Os Belenenses19%fair 5.36 · @4.60
Draw19%fair 5.23 · @3.90
Arouca62%fair 1.61 · @1.55
2.50Expected goals
0.77CF Os Belenenses xG
1.73Arouca xG
56%Both score
46%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–114%
0–212%
1–111%
1–29%
0–08%
0–37%

From our goals model: CF Os Belenenses 0.8 – 1.7 Arouca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultArouca to win ✗62%1.611.55
Double chanceArouca or draw ✓81%1.231.15
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓56%1.791.80
Draw no betArouca (draw no bet)77%1.30–
Asian handicapArouca -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗60%1.66–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓71%1.40–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗54%1.84–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76%1.32–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✗89%1.12–
First team to scoreArouca to score first ✓63%1.58–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗42%2.35–
Half-time / full-timeHT Arouca / FT Arouca ✗37%2.68–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9%10.57–

Recent results

CF Os Belenenses – last 6

DWWWWW
11 Oct@ Mafra2–2D
19 Sep@ Beira-Mar2–0W
13 Sepvs Atlético CP1–0W
6 Sep@ Vitória de Sernache3–1W
30 Aug@ Lusitano Évora 19112–1W
22 Augvs União Santarém5–0W
2.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Arouca – last 6

WDLDWL
11 Octvs Estrela1–0W
19 Sep@ Sporting CP2–2D
13 Sepvs Santa Clara1–2L
7 Sep@ Estoril0–0D
29 Augvs Maritimo2–1W
23 Aug@ FC Porto0–2L
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between CF Os Belenenses and Arouca.

CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca head-to-head page →

More Taça De Portugal predictions

League hub
FT Brito0 Vitória de Sernache1 132%3.00X23%3.00245%2.10 1.7–2.0xG GGBoth teams to score 66%@1.62 ✗
FT Fátima1 Academico Viseu0 114%9.00X17%4.80269%1.25 1.4–3.1xG 2Academico Viseu to win 69%@1.25 ✗
FT Lusitânia Lourosa2 Os Limianos1 176%1.12X17%6.5027%17.00 3.0–1.0xG GGBoth teams to score 57%@2.45 ✓
FT Mafra2 Santa Clara2 AET 3–2 111%6.50X21%3.80269%1.40 1.4–3.1xG 2Santa Clara to win 69%@1.40 ✗
FT Salgueiros1 Estoril1 Pens 1–4 110%7.50X21%3.90268%1.36 0.4–1.6xG 2Estoril to win 68%@1.36 ✗
FT Tondela0 Alverca0 AET 2–0 128%3.00X23%3.10249%2.10 2.7–3.3xG GGBoth teams to score 71%@1.75 ✗
FT Paredes1 Famalicao0 111%6.00X24%3.75265%1.44 1.7–3.3xG GGBoth teams to score 66%@1.80 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca?

Our pick is Arouca to win with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.

Who will win CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca?

On our numbers CF Os Belenenses have a 19% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Arouca 62%.

How many goals will there be in CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca?

Our predicted score is CF Os Belenenses 0–1 Arouca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.

When is CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca?

CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca (Taça De Portugal) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.