Home Win Predictions yesterday

Yesterday's home wins picks: today's figures

42 matches on Tuesday 10 November qualify for this market today, averaging 66%. Most picks come from England EFL Trophy (9), Algeria Ligue 2 (4), England Non League Premier Isthmian (4). 15 of them are priced above our fair odds, so they also offer value.

Home wins explained

Every game on this page has a home side our model gives at least a 50% chance of winning – the 1 in 1X2, sorted from strongest to weakest.

The hosts must be in front at the final whistle; a draw loses just like an away win. Playing at home helps, but less than most punters think – across the big leagues the home team wins well under half of all matches.

Where home wins makes sense

The best home picks tick three boxes: a clear ratings gap, an attack that scores freely in front of its own fans, and visitors who struggle on the road. A long journey or a midweek game for the away side is a bonus.

Checklist

• Look up the home table, not the overall table – some sides are a different team at home.
• At 1.25 or shorter you carry a lot of risk for very little return.
• Instead of adding a second favourite, pair a strong home pick with over 1.5 goals.

Where these chances come from

Each percentage is read from the Betarazi score grid, built from our nightly team ratings and expected goals, with the bookmakers' lines folded in for late team news. If a bookmaker pays more than our fair price (100 ÷ the percentage), the pick carries value too. The full method is on how it works.

Rather take a whole slip? Our daily slips are ready to copy. For longer odds see the value spots, or jump to another market.