Legia Warszawa v Motor Lublin Prediction & Expected Goals (23 May) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultLegia Warszawa to win ✓58% · @1.54

Double chanceLegia Warszawa or draw ✓81% · @1.14

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.62

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.18

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.15

Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

16:30 WAT, Saturday 23 May: Legia Warszawa v Motor Lublin in the Ekstraklasa, played at Stadion Wojska Polskiego w Warszawie. In the table, Legia Warszawa are 3rd, among the top four, on 24 points after 14 matches; Motor Lublin are 10th (lower half) with 19.

Current form

Legia Warszawa, last 5: WWWWD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Lechia Gdansk, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Motor Lublin, last 5: WLLDW Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Wisla Plock, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 5. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Legia Warszawa, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.7 for Motor Lublin.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Legia Warszawa 1.8 xG, Motor Lublin 1.1 xG – a total near 2.9. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 58% and GG at 58%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Legia Warszawa 58%, draw 23%, Motor Lublin 19%.
Lower-risk option: Legia Warszawa or draw (81%) at 1.14.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.62.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (64%, odds 1.55). Most likely score in line with that pick: Legia Warszawa 1–1 Motor Lublin. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Legia Warszawa58%fair 1.73 · @1.54

Draw23%fair 4.40 · @4.20

Motor Lublin19%fair 5.13 · @5.40

2.91Expected goals

1.83Legia Warszawa xG

1.08Motor Lublin xG

58%Both score

58%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–111%

1–010%

2–110%

2–09%

3–16%

0–16%

From our goals model: Legia Warszawa 1.8 – 1.1 Motor Lublin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Legia Warszawa to win ✓	58%	1.73	1.54
Double chance	Legia Warszawa or draw ✓	81%	1.24	1.14
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	58%	1.72	1.62
Draw no bet	Legia Warszawa (draw no bet) ✓	75%	1.34	–
Asian handicap	Motor Lublin +1.5 (Asian handicap) ✗	69%	1.45	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	79%	1.26	1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	58%	1.73	1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	64%	1.57	1.55
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	80%	1.25	1.22
First team to score	Legia Warszawa to score first ✓	59%	1.68	–
Half-time result	Legia Warszawa ahead at half-time ✓	40%	2.47	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Legia Warszawa / FT Legia Warszawa ✓	34%	2.93	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	10%	10.15	–

Legia Warszawa – last 6

WWWWDD

17 May	@ Lechia Gdansk	2–1	W
1 May	vs Widzew Łódź	1–0	W
17 Apr	vs Zaglebie Lubin	1–0	W
6 Apr	@ Pogon Szczecin	2–0	W
13 Mar	@ Radomiak Radom	1–1	D
1 Mar	@ Jagiellonia	2–2	D

1.5Scored / game

0.7Conceded / game

50%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

Motor Lublin – last 6

WLLDWW

10 May	@ Wisla Plock	4–0	W
26 Apr	@ Widzew Łódź	0–2	L
17 Apr	@ GKS Katowice	2–3	L
6 Apr	@ Radomiak Radom	1–1	D
20 Mar	vs Zaglebie Lubin	1–0	W
13 Mar	@ Nieciecza	2–1	W

1.7Scored / game

1.2Conceded / game

50%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Lech Poznan	13	10	2	1	+21	32
2	Gornik Zabrze	14	9	4	1	+11	31
3	Legia Warszawa	14	6	6	2	+10	24
4	Pogon Szczecin	13	7	3	3	+5	24
5	Wisla Krakow	14	7	3	4	+3	24
6	Zaglebie Lubin	14	6	5	3	+1	23
7	Piast Gliwice	14	6	4	4	+4	22
8	GKS Katowice	14	7	0	7	+5	21
9	Jagiellonia	13	7	0	6	0	21
10	Motor Lublin	14	5	4	5	-2	19
11	Korona Kielce	14	5	3	6	-7	18
12	Wisla Plock	13	4	3	6	-7	15
13	Widzew Łódź	14	2	8	4	+1	14
14	Radomiak Radom	14	4	2	8	-12	14
15	Cracovia Krakow	14	3	3	8	-7	12
16	Raków Częstochowa	14	4	0	10	-8	12
17	Slask Wroclaw	14	2	4	8	-8	10
18	Wieczysta Kraków	14	2	2	10	-10	8

Team

Pts

+21

+11

+10

-2

-7

-7

-12

-7

-8

-8

-10

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.

Who will win Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin?

On our numbers Legia Warszawa have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Motor Lublin 19%.

How many goals will there be in Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin?

We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin?

Our predicted score is Legia Warszawa 1–1 Motor Lublin, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.

When is Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin?

Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin (Ekstraklasa) kicks off on Saturday 23 May 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Wojska Polskiego w Warszawie.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Legia Warszawa v Motor Lublin: numbers & prediction