Roda 37%Draw 24%Willem II 39%Expected goals 1.31 – 1.46
65%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.57Odds
2
Value bet: Willem II to win @ 2.75 – our chance 39% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultWillem II to win ✓39% · @2.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗64% · @1.45
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗78% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.42
Roda vs Willem II: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Monday 6 April the Eerste Divisie brings Roda against Willem II at Parkstad Limburg Stadion. Kick-off: 15:45 WAT.
Current form
Roda, last 5: WDLDL Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Dordrecht, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Willem II, last 5: WWWDW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Jong PSV U21, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Willem II, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.0 for Roda.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Roda 1.3 xG, Willem II 1.5 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 57%, GG 64%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Roda 37%, draw 24%, Willem II 39%.
GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.45.
Price worth noting: Willem II to win @2.75 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 39%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (65%, odds 1.57). Most likely score in line with that pick: Roda 1–1 Willem II. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Roda37%fair 2.72 · @2.25
Draw24%fair 4.09 · @3.75
Willem II39%fair 2.58 · @2.75
2.77Expected goals
1.31Roda xG
1.46Willem II xG
64%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–19%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–27%
From our goals model: Roda 1.3 – 1.5 Willem II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Roda
Willem II
Attack vs Eerste Divisie average
-17%
+5%
Goals conceded vs average
-19%
-28%
Our expected goals here
1.08
1.36
Our own ratings from every Eerste Divisie result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Willem II to win✓
39%
2.58
2.75 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
64%
1.57
1.45
Draw no bet
Willem II (draw no bet)✓
51%
1.95
–
Asian handicap
Roda +1 (Asian handicap)
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.57
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
1.22
First team to score
Willem II to score first✓
49%
2.02
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Willem II / FT Willem II✓
24%
4.17
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.42
–
Recent results
Roda – last 6
WDLDLD
3 Apr
@ Dordrecht
3–0
W
20 Mar
vs Helmond Sport
1–1
D
16 Mar
vs Vitesse
0–1
L
13 Mar
@ Cambuur
1–1
D
6 Mar
vs Jong PSV U21
0–2
L
27 Feb
@ Den Bosch
2–2
D
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Willem II – last 6
WWWDWL
3 Apr
vs Jong PSV U21
1–0
W
22 Mar
@ MVV
5–0
W
13 Mar
@ FC OSS
3–1
W
8 Mar
vs Den Bosch
1–1
D
27 Feb
@ Emmen
3–0
W
24 Feb
vs ADO Den Haag
0–1
L
2.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Roda and Willem II.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Roda vs Willem II?
On our numbers Roda have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Willem II 39%.
How many goals will there be in Roda vs Willem II?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Roda vs Willem II?
Our predicted score is Roda 1–1 Willem II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Roda vs Willem II?
Roda vs Willem II (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Monday 6 April 2026 at 15:45 (West Africa Time) at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Cambuur1
ADO Den Haag4