De Graafschap vs Jong AZ: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Jong AZ travel to face De Graafschap on Monday 6 April in the Eerste Divisie, with De Vijverberg the venue – the ball rolls at 15:45 WAT. In the table, De Graafschap are 1st, leading the league, on 0 points after 0 matches; Jong AZ are 19th (in the drop zone) with 0. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
De Graafschap, last 5: DLLDW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with FC Eindhoven, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Jong AZ, last 5: WDLLL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Helmond Sport, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give De Graafschap 2.1 xG, Jong AZ 1.7 xG – a total near 3.8. That is an open game on paper: 73% for three or more goals, 70% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – De Graafschap 51%, draw 21%, Jong AZ 28%.
GG/NG: GG (70%) at 1.33.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (73%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: De Graafschap 2–1 Jong AZ. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
De Graafschap51%fair 1.96 · @1.68
Draw21%fair 4.70 · @4.40
Jong AZ28%fair 3.60 · @4.00
3.78Expected goals
2.07De Graafschap xG
1.71Jong AZ xG
70%Both score
73%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–18%
1–18%
2–27%
1–27%
3–16%
3–25%
From our goals model: De Graafschap 2.1 – 1.7 Jong AZ expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
De Graafschap
Jong AZ
Attack vs Eerste Divisie average
-13%
+20%
Goals conceded vs average
+5%
+26%
Our expected goals here
1.99
1.98
Our own ratings from every Eerste Divisie result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
De Graafschap to win✓
51%
1.96
1.68
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
70%
1.43
1.33
Draw no bet
De Graafschap (draw no bet)✓
65%
1.54
–
Asian handicap
Jong AZ +1 (Asian handicap)✗
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
1.09
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
1.30
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
52%
1.91
1.80
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
66%
1.51
1.45
First team to score
De Graafschap to score first✓
53%
1.87
–
Half-time result
De Graafschap ahead at half-time✓
37%
2.69
–
Half-time / full-time
HT De Graafschap / FT De Graafschap✓
29%
3.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.96
–
Recent results
De Graafschap – last 6
DLLDWW
3 Apr
@ FC Eindhoven
2–2
D
22 Mar
vs ADO Den Haag
1–2
L
8 Mar
vs Vitesse
1–4
L
27 Feb
@ MVV
3–3
D
20 Feb
vs Jong Utrecht
1–0
W
13 Feb
@ Jong PSV U21
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Jong AZ – last 6
WDLLLD
3 Apr
vs Helmond Sport
2–0
W
16 Mar
vs MVV
1–1
D
13 Mar
@ Waalwijk
1–2
L
9 Mar
vs Emmen
2–3
L
27 Feb
@ Vitesse
0–2
L
23 Feb
vs Den Bosch
2–2
D
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between De Graafschap and Jong AZ.
What is the prediction for De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
On our numbers De Graafschap have a 51% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Jong AZ 28%.
How many goals will there be in De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
We expect about 3.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 73% likely and both teams score 70% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
Our predicted score is De Graafschap 2–1 Jong AZ, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.8 goals in total.
When is De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
De Graafschap vs Jong AZ (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Monday 6 April 2026 at 15:45 (West Africa Time) at De Vijverberg.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Willem II1
Cambuur1
ADO Den Haag4