Derby v Sheffield Utd Prediction & Expected Goals (2 May) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultDerby to win ✗43% · @1.83

Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.22

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.60

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.20

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.36

Derby vs Sheffield Utd: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

12:30 WAT, Saturday 2 May: Derby v Sheffield Utd in the Championship, played at Pride Park. In the table, Derby are 23rd, in the drop zone, on 10 points after 15 matches; Sheffield Utd are 10th (upper half) with 22. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

Derby, last 5: LWLWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Norwich, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.

Sheffield Utd, last 5: LLDLL Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Blackburn, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Derby, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.7 for Sheffield Utd.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Derby 1.4 xG, Sheffield Utd 1.4 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 55%, GG 63%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Derby 43%, draw 25%, Sheffield Utd 31%.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.60.
Price worth noting: Sheffield Utd to win @3.85 – the bookmaker implies 26%, our ratings say 31%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (78%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Derby 1–1 Sheffield Utd. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Derby43%fair 2.31 · @1.83

Draw25%fair 3.95 · @3.75

Sheffield Utd31%fair 3.18 · @3.85

2.81Expected goals

1.36Derby xG

1.45Sheffield Utd xG

63%Both score

55%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–112%

0–19%

1–29%

1–08%

2–18%

0–26%

From our goals model: Derby 1.4 – 1.4 Sheffield Utd expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Derby to win ✗	43%	2.31	1.83
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	75%	1.34	1.22
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	63%	1.58	1.60
Draw no bet	Derby (draw no bet) ✗	58%	1.73	–
Asian handicap	Derby +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗	61%	1.65	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	78%	1.29	1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	55%	1.81	1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	66%	1.50	1.48
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	82%	1.21	1.18
First team to score	Sheffield Utd to score first ✗	48%	2.07	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	41%	2.42	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Sheffield Utd / FT Sheffield Utd ✗	23%	4.35	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	8%	12.36	–

Derby – last 6

LWLWLW

21 Apr	@ Norwich	1–2	L
6 Apr	vs Stoke City	2–0	W
3 Apr	@ Coventry	2–3	L
16 Mar	@ Portsmouth	1–0	W
10 Mar	@ Millwall	0–1	L
28 Feb	vs Blackburn	3–1	W

1.5Scored / game

1.2Conceded / game

50%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Sheffield Utd – last 6

LLDLLW

22 Apr	vs Blackburn	1–3	L
6 Apr	@ Bristol City	0–1	L
3 Apr	vs Swansea	3–3	D
11 Mar	@ Norwich	1–2	L
25 Feb	vs Coventry	1–2	L
22 Feb	vs Sheffield Wednesday	2–1	W

1.3Scored / game

2.0Conceded / game

83%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Birmingham	15	8	5	2	+14	29
2	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	+11	29
3	Stoke City	15	9	2	4	+6	29
4	Wolves	15	8	4	3	+8	28
5	West Brom	15	8	4	3	+8	28
6	Swansea	15	8	2	5	+4	26
7	Southampton	15	8	4	3	+14	24
8	QPR	15	6	6	3	+6	24
9	West Ham	15	6	5	4	+14	23
10	Sheffield Utd	15	6	4	5	+2	22
11	Portsmouth	15	6	4	5	+2	22
12	Norwich	15	7	0	8	+8	21
13	Blackburn	15	6	3	6	-1	21
14	Cardiff	15	4	6	5	0	18
15	Wrexham	15	4	6	5	-2	18
16	Millwall	15	5	3	7	-4	18
17	Bristol City	15	5	3	7	-8	18
18	Bolton	15	5	2	8	-9	17
19	Charlton	15	4	5	6	-10	17
20	Watford	15	4	3	8	-10	15
21	Lincoln	15	4	3	8	-11	15
22	Burnley	15	1	7	7	-9	10
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	-16	10
24	Preston	15	2	2	11	-17	8

Team

Pts

+14

+11

+14

+14

-1

-2

-4

-8

-9

-10

-10

-11

-9

-16

-17

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Derby vs Sheffield Utd?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Derby vs Sheffield Utd?

On our numbers Derby have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Sheffield Utd 31%.

How many goals will there be in Derby vs Sheffield Utd?

We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Derby vs Sheffield Utd?

Our predicted score is Derby 1–1 Sheffield Utd, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.

When is Derby vs Sheffield Utd?

Derby vs Sheffield Utd (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time) at Pride Park.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Derby v Sheffield Utd: numbers & prediction