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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Bristol City v Stoke City: numbers & prediction

Championship · England · Ashton Gate Stadium

Bristol City

DWWLD
2–0
FT

Stoke City

LLWLD
Bristol City 42%Draw 25%Stoke City 33% Expected goals 1.33 – 1.30
76%
Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.31 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.20Odds
2

Value bet: Stoke City to win @ 3.45 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultBristol City to win ✓42% · @1.96
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗63% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.05

Bristol City vs Stoke City: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Bristol City welcome Stoke City to Ashton Gate Stadium for a Championship fixture on Saturday 2 May (12:30 WAT). In the table, Bristol City are 17th, lower half, on 18 points after 15 matches; Stoke City are 3rd (among the top four) with 29.

Current form

Bristol City, last 5: DWWLD Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Southampton, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.

Stoke City, last 5: LLWLD Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Millwall, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Bristol City 1.3 xG, Stoke City 1.3 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 63%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Bristol City 42%, draw 25%, Stoke City 33%.
  • GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.53.
  • Price worth noting: Stoke City to win @3.45 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 33%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Bristol City 1–1 Stoke City. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Bristol City42%fair 2.39 · @1.96
Draw25%fair 4.02 · @3.70
Stoke City33%fair 3.01 · @3.45
2.63Expected goals
1.33Bristol City xG
1.30Stoke City xG
63%Both score
54%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–112%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–07%

From our goals model: Bristol City 1.3 – 1.3 Stoke City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultBristol City to win ✓42%2.391.96
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75%1.331.22
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗63%1.581.53
Draw no betBristol City (draw no bet) ✓56%1.79–
Asian handicapStoke City +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗62%1.60–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76%1.311.20
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗54%1.871.62
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓68%1.471.50
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓83%1.211.20
First team to scoreBristol City to score first ✓47%2.13–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗43%2.33–
Half-time / full-timeHT Bristol City / FT Bristol City ✓22%4.59–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8%12.05–

Recent results

Bristol City – last 6

DWWLDL
21 Apr@ Southampton2–2D
6 Aprvs Sheffield Utd1–0W
3 Apr@ Charlton2–1W
10 Mar@ Leicester0–2L
3 Mar@ Port Vale0–0D
27 Febvs Watford1–2L
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Stoke City – last 6

LLWLDW
21 Aprvs Millwall1–3L
6 Apr@ Derby0–2L
3 Aprvs Sheffield Wednesday2–0W
20 Mar@ Preston1–3L
10 Marvs Ipswich3–3D
25 Febvs Oxford United2–1W
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Bristol City and Stoke City.

Bristol City vs Stoke City head-to-head page →

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Birmingham15852+1429
2Middlesbrough15852+1129
3Stoke City15924+629
4Wolves15843+828
5West Brom15843+828
6Swansea15825+426
7Southampton15843+1424
8QPR15663+624
9West Ham15654+1423
10Sheffield Utd15645+222
11Portsmouth15645+222
12Norwich15708+821
13Blackburn15636-121
14Cardiff15465018
15Wrexham15465-218
16Millwall15537-418
17Bristol City15537-818
18Bolton15528-917
19Charlton15456-1017
20Watford15438-1015
21Lincoln15438-1115
22Burnley15177-910
23Derby15249-1610
24Preston152211-178

More Championship predictions

League hub
FT Blackburn0 Leicester1 141%2.18X24%3.55235%3.05 1.4–1.4xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 76%@1.25 ✗
FT Watford0 Coventry4 126%3.30X23%3.90252%1.96 1.2–1.8xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 63%@1.57 ✗
FT Hull City2 Norwich1 151%1.90X23%3.85226%3.55 1.6–1.2xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 66%@1.53 ✓
FT Derby1 Sheffield Utd2 143%1.83X25%3.75231%3.85 1.4–1.4xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 78%@1.20 ✓
FT Ipswich3 QPR0 163%1.27X19%5.50218%10.00 2.0–1.2xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 60%@1.57 ✓
FT Sheffield Wednesday2 West Brom1 120%5.75X24%4.40256%1.50 1.0–1.6xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 76%@1.20 ✓
FT Millwall2 Oxford United0 152%1.37X24%4.55224%8.20 1.4–1.2xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 75%@1.22 ✓
FT Wrexham2 Middlesbrough2 135%2.58X25%3.65241%2.44 1.3–1.5xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 77%@1.20 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Bristol City vs Stoke City?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Bristol City vs Stoke City?

On our numbers Bristol City have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Stoke City 33%.

How many goals will there be in Bristol City vs Stoke City?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Bristol City vs Stoke City?

Our predicted score is Bristol City 1–1 Stoke City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.

When is Bristol City vs Stoke City?

Bristol City vs Stoke City (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time) at Ashton Gate Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.