Wrexham v Middlesbrough Prediction & Expected Goals (2 May) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultMiddlesbrough to win ✗41% · @2.44

Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.22

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.53

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.20

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.42

Wrexham vs Middlesbrough: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Middlesbrough travel to face Wrexham on Saturday 2 May in the Championship, with SToK Cae Ras the venue – the ball rolls at 12:30 WAT. In the table, Wrexham are 15th, lower half, on 18 points after 15 matches; Middlesbrough are 2nd (among the top four) with 29.

Current form

Wrexham, last 5: LWLLD Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Coventry, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.5 conceded per game.

Middlesbrough, last 5: WDDLL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Sheffield Wednesday, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Middlesbrough, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.7 for Wrexham.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Wrexham 1.3 xG, Middlesbrough 1.5 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 55%, GG 63%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Wrexham 35%, draw 25%, Middlesbrough 41%.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.53.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Wrexham 1–1 Middlesbrough. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Wrexham35%fair 2.87 · @2.58

Draw25%fair 4.06 · @3.65

Middlesbrough41%fair 2.47 · @2.44

2.77Expected goals

1.31Wrexham xG

1.46Middlesbrough xG

63%Both score

55%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–112%

0–19%

1–29%

1–08%

2–18%

0–27%

From our goals model: Wrexham 1.3 – 1.5 Middlesbrough expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Middlesbrough to win ✗	41%	2.47	2.44
Double chance	Either team to win ✗	75%	1.33	1.22
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	63%	1.58	1.53
Draw no bet	Middlesbrough (draw no bet)	54%	1.86	–
Asian handicap	Wrexham +1 (Asian handicap) ✓	75%	1.33	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	77%	1.29	1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	55%	1.81	1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	66%	1.51	1.50
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	83%	1.21	1.18
First team to score	Middlesbrough to score first	49%	2.02	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	42%	2.41	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Middlesbrough / FT Middlesbrough ✗	24%	4.17	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2 ✗	9%	11.42	–

Wrexham – last 6

LWLLDL

26 Apr	@ Coventry	1–3	L
21 Apr	@ Oxford United	1–0	W
12 Apr	@ Birmingham	0–2	L
7 Apr	vs Southampton	1–5	L
3 Apr	@ West Brom	2–2	D
17 Mar	@ Watford	1–3	L

1.0Scored / game

2.5Conceded / game

67%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Middlesbrough – last 6

WDDLLW

22 Apr	vs Sheffield Wednesday	1–0	W
19 Apr	@ Ipswich	2–2	D
6 Apr	@ Swansea	2–2	D
3 Apr	vs Millwall	1–2	L
11 Mar	vs Charlton	0–1	L
8 Mar	@ QPR	4–0	W

1.7Scored / game

1.2Conceded / game

50%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Birmingham	15	8	5	2	+14	29
2	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	+11	29
3	Stoke City	15	9	2	4	+6	29
4	Wolves	15	8	4	3	+8	28
5	West Brom	15	8	4	3	+8	28
6	Swansea	15	8	2	5	+4	26
7	Southampton	15	8	4	3	+14	24
8	QPR	15	6	6	3	+6	24
9	West Ham	15	6	5	4	+14	23
10	Sheffield Utd	15	6	4	5	+2	22
11	Portsmouth	15	6	4	5	+2	22
12	Norwich	15	7	0	8	+8	21
13	Blackburn	15	6	3	6	-1	21
14	Cardiff	15	4	6	5	0	18
15	Wrexham	15	4	6	5	-2	18
16	Millwall	15	5	3	7	-4	18
17	Bristol City	15	5	3	7	-8	18
18	Bolton	15	5	2	8	-9	17
19	Charlton	15	4	5	6	-10	17
20	Watford	15	4	3	8	-10	15
21	Lincoln	15	4	3	8	-11	15
22	Burnley	15	1	7	7	-9	10
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	-16	10
24	Preston	15	2	2	11	-17	8

Team

Pts

+14

+11

+14

+14

-1

-2

-4

-8

-9

-10

-10

-11

-9

-16

-17

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Wrexham vs Middlesbrough?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Wrexham vs Middlesbrough?

On our numbers Wrexham have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Middlesbrough 41%.

How many goals will there be in Wrexham vs Middlesbrough?

We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Wrexham vs Middlesbrough?

Our predicted score is Wrexham 1–1 Middlesbrough, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.

When is Wrexham vs Middlesbrough?

Wrexham vs Middlesbrough (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time) at SToK Cae Ras.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Wrexham v Middlesbrough: numbers & prediction