Value bet: Lorient to win @ 2.58 – our chance 45% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLorient to win ✗45% · @2.58
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.71
Lorient vs Le Havre: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Lorient welcome Le Havre to Stade du Moustoir for a Ligue 1 fixture on Sunday 17 May (20:00 WAT). In the table, Lorient are 10th, lower half, on 15 points after 10 matches; Le Havre are 18th (in the drop zone) with 2. There are 13 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Lorient, last 5: LDDDD Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Strasbourg, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Le Havre, last 5: DDLDL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Lille, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Lorient, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.5 for Le Havre.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lorient 1.5 xG, Le Havre 1.0 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lorient 45%, draw 25%, Le Havre 30%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Lorient to win @2.58 – the bookmaker implies 39%, our ratings say 45%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lorient 1–1 Le Havre. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lorient45%fair 2.23 · @2.58
Draw25%fair 3.98 · @3.40
Le Havre30%fair 3.34 · @2.58
2.55Expected goals
1.54Lorient xG
1.01Le Havre xG
59%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–012%
2–19%
2–09%
0–18%
0–08%
From our goals model: Lorient 1.5 – 1.0 Le Havre expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lorient to win✗
45%
2.23
2.58 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.71
1.67
Draw no bet
Lorient (draw no bet)✗
60%
1.67
–
Asian handicap
Le Havre +1 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.95
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
1.11
First team to score
Lorient to score first✗
56%
1.80
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lorient / FT Lorient✗
30%
3.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.71
–
Recent results
Lorient – last 6
LDDDDW
26 Apr
vs Strasbourg
2–3
L
5 Apr
vs Paris FC
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Lille
1–1
D
1 Mar
vs Auxerre
2–2
D
22 Feb
@ Nice
3–3
D
15 Feb
vs Angers
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Le Havre – last 6
DDLDLL
3 May
@ Lille
1–1
D
5 Apr
vs Auxerre
1–1
D
22 Mar
@ Paris FC
2–3
L
15 Mar
vs Lyon
0–0
D
8 Mar
@ Stade Brestois 29
0–2
L
22 Feb
@ Nantes
0–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lorient and Le Havre.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Lorient vs Le Havre?
On our numbers Lorient have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Le Havre 30%.
How many goals will there be in Lorient vs Le Havre?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lorient vs Le Havre?
Our predicted score is Lorient 1–1 Le Havre, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Lorient vs Le Havre?
Lorient vs Le Havre (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade du Moustoir.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Nantes0
Metz0