Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.55 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.55Odds
Picks by market
ResultMarseille to win ✓51% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.48
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.48
Marseille vs Rennes: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 17 May the Ligue 1 brings Marseille against Rennes at Orange Vélodrome. Kick-off: 20:00 WAT. In the table, Marseille are 4th, among the top four, on 18 points after 10 matches; Rennes are 8th (upper half) with 16. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Marseille, last 5: WLLWL Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Metz, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.4 conceded per game.
Rennes, last 5: DLWWW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Metz, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.2 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Rennes, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.2 for Marseille.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Marseille 2.0 xG, Rennes 1.3 xG – a total near 3.4. That is an open game on paper: 63% for three or more goals, 63% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Marseille 51%, draw 22%, Rennes 27%.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.48.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (63%, odds 1.55). Most likely score in line with that pick: Marseille 2–1 Rennes. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Marseille51%fair 1.97 · @2.00
Draw22%fair 4.59 · @3.70
Rennes27%fair 3.66 · @3.30
3.35Expected goals
2.03Marseille xG
1.32Rennes xG
63%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
1–19%
2–07%
1–07%
3–16%
2–26%
From our goals model: Marseille 2.0 – 1.3 Rennes expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Marseille to win✓
51%
1.97
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.59
1.48
Draw no bet
Marseille (draw no bet)✓
65%
1.54
–
Asian handicap
Rennes +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.21
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
58%
1.71
1.57
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.22
First team to score
Marseille to score first✓
59%
1.71
–
Half-time result
Marseille ahead at half-time✓
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Marseille / FT Marseille✓
34%
2.95
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.48
–
Recent results
Marseille – last 5
WLLWL
10 Apr
vs Metz
3–1
W
5 Apr
@ Monaco
1–2
L
22 Mar
vs Lille
1–2
L
13 Mar
vs Auxerre
1–0
W
20 Feb
@ Stade Brestois 29
0–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Rennes – last 5
DLWWW
22 Mar
vs Metz
0–0
D
15 Mar
vs Lille
1–2
L
8 Mar
@ Nice
4–0
W
22 Feb
@ Auxerre
3–0
W
13 Feb
vs Paris Saint Germain
3–1
W
2.2Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Marseille and Rennes.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Marseille vs Rennes?
On our numbers Marseille have a 51% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Rennes 27%.
How many goals will there be in Marseille vs Rennes?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Marseille vs Rennes?
Our predicted score is Marseille 2–1 Rennes, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Marseille vs Rennes?
Marseille vs Rennes (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Orange Vélodrome.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Nantes0
Metz0