Value bet: Estrela to win @ 3.60 – our chance 30% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultFamalicao to win ✗45% · @1.99
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.17
Estrela vs Famalicao: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Monday 11 May the Primeira Liga brings Estrela against Famalicao at Estádio José Gomes. Kick-off: 20:15 WAT. In the table, Estrela are 12th, lower half, on 10 points after 11 matches; Famalicao are 10th (lower half) with 13. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Estrela, last 5: LWLDL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Arouca, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.4 scored, 1.4 conceded per game.
Famalicao, last 4: DWWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Moreirense, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Famalicao, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.8 for Estrela.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Estrela 1.2 xG, Famalicao 1.5 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Estrela 30%, draw 25%, Famalicao 45%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Estrela to win @3.60 – the bookmaker implies 28%, our ratings say 30%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Estrela 1–1 Famalicao. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Estrela30%fair 3.31 · @3.60
Draw25%fair 4.02 · @3.45
Famalicao45%fair 2.23 · @1.99
2.70Expected goals
1.22Estrela xG
1.47Famalicao xG
60%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–08%
2–17%
0–27%
From our goals model: Estrela 1.2 – 1.5 Famalicao expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Famalicao to win✗
45%
2.23
1.99
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.33
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.68
1.70
Draw no bet
Famalicao (draw no bet)
60%
1.67
–
Asian handicap
Estrela +1 (Asian handicap)✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
74%
1.35
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.42
1.35
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
1.12
First team to score
Famalicao to score first✗
51%
1.96
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Famalicao / FT Famalicao✗
25%
3.95
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.17
–
Recent results
Estrela – last 5
LWLDL
19 Apr
@ Arouca
0–1
L
20 Mar
vs Casa Pia
4–0
W
15 Mar
@ Rio Ave
1–2
L
8 Mar
vs GIL Vicente
2–2
D
20 Feb
vs Tondela
0–2
L
1.4Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
40%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Famalicao – last 4
DWWL
10 Apr
vs Moreirense
1–1
D
6 Mar
vs Arouca
1–0
W
23 Feb
vs Casa Pia
2–0
W
15 Feb
@ Sporting CP
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Estrela and Famalicao.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Estrela vs Famalicao?
On our numbers Estrela have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Famalicao 45%.
How many goals will there be in Estrela vs Famalicao?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Estrela vs Famalicao?
Our predicted score is Estrela 1–1 Famalicao, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Estrela vs Famalicao?
Estrela vs Famalicao (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Monday 11 May 2026 at 20:15 (West Africa Time) at Estádio José Gomes.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Tondela2