Value bet: Santa Clara to win @ 2.12 – our chance 52% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultSanta Clara to win ✓52% · @2.12
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.51
Santa Clara vs Nacional: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Nacional travel to face Santa Clara on Monday 11 May in the Primeira Liga, with Estádio de São Miguel the venue – the ball rolls at 20:15 WAT. In the table, Santa Clara are 4th, among the top four, on 21 points after 11 matches; Nacional are 13th (lower half) with 10.
Current form
Santa Clara, last 4: WDDL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over AVS, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Nacional, last 3: LLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Estoril, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.0 goals a game.
Momentum favours Santa Clara, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.0 for Nacional.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Santa Clara 1.7 xG, Nacional 0.8 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Santa Clara 52%, draw 24%, Nacional 24%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.77.
Price worth noting: Santa Clara to win @2.12 – the bookmaker implies 47%, our ratings say 52%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Santa Clara 1–0 Nacional. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Santa Clara52%fair 1.92 · @2.12
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @3.25
Nacional24%fair 4.16 · @3.45
2.51Expected goals
1.70Santa Clara xG
0.81Nacional xG
53%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–08%
0–17%
From our goals model: Santa Clara 1.7 – 0.8 Nacional expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Santa Clara to win✓
52%
1.92
2.12 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
1.77
Draw no bet
Santa Clara (draw no bet)✓
68%
1.46
–
Asian handicap
Nacional +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
67%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.42
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.87
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
1.09
First team to score
Santa Clara to score first✓
62%
1.61
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Santa Clara / FT Santa Clara✓
36%
2.78
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.51
–
Recent results
Santa Clara – last 4
WDDL
15 Mar
@ AVS
1–0
W
1 Mar
@ Tondela
2–2
D
21 Feb
@ Alverca
1–1
D
13 Feb
vs Benfica
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
75%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Nacional – last 3
LLL
15 Mar
vs Estoril
0–1
L
21 Feb
@ Arouca
0–3
L
15 Feb
vs FC Porto
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
0%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Santa Clara and Nacional.
What is the prediction for Santa Clara vs Nacional?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Santa Clara vs Nacional?
On our numbers Santa Clara have a 52% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Nacional 24%.
How many goals will there be in Santa Clara vs Nacional?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santa Clara vs Nacional?
Our predicted score is Santa Clara 1–0 Nacional, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Santa Clara vs Nacional?
Santa Clara vs Nacional (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Monday 11 May 2026 at 20:15 (West Africa Time) at Estádio de São Miguel.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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