Guimaraes vs Casa Pia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Casa Pia travel to face Guimaraes on Monday 11 May in the Primeira Liga, with Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques the venue – the ball rolls at 20:15 WAT. In the table, Guimaraes are 14th, lower half, on 9 points after 11 matches; Casa Pia are 16th (in the drop zone) with 8. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Casa Pia, last 5: LLDLD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to GIL Vicente, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Guimaraes 1.7 xG, Casa Pia 0.8 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Guimaraes 58%, draw 25%, Casa Pia 18%.
Lower-risk option: Guimaraes or draw (82%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.80.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Guimaraes 1–0 Casa Pia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Guimaraes58%fair 1.73 · @1.70
Draw25%fair 4.05 · @3.80
Casa Pia18%fair 5.67 · @4.60
2.49Expected goals
1.71Guimaraes xG
0.78Casa Pia xG
53%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Guimaraes 1.7 – 0.8 Casa Pia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Guimaraes to win✗
58%
1.73
1.70
Double chance
Guimaraes or draw✗
82%
1.21
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.88
1.80
Draw no bet
Guimaraes (draw no bet)✗
77%
1.31
–
Asian handicap
Casa Pia +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.50
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.38
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
1.93
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
1.11
First team to score
Guimaraes to score first✗
63%
1.59
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Guimaraes / FT Guimaraes✗
37%
2.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.58
–
Recent results
Guimaraes – last 2
LW
4 May
@ Sporting CP
1–5
L
3 Apr
vs Tondela
5–0
W
3.0Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Casa Pia – last 6
LLDLDL
27 Apr
@ GIL Vicente
1–2
L
23 Apr
vs SC Braga
0–1
L
6 Apr
vs Benfica
1–1
D
20 Mar
@ Estrela
0–4
L
1 Mar
vs Moreirense
1–1
D
23 Feb
@ Famalicao
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Guimaraes and Casa Pia.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Guimaraes vs Casa Pia?
On our numbers Guimaraes have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Casa Pia 18%.
How many goals will there be in Guimaraes vs Casa Pia?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Guimaraes vs Casa Pia?
Our predicted score is Guimaraes 1–0 Casa Pia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Guimaraes vs Casa Pia?
Guimaraes vs Casa Pia (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Monday 11 May 2026 at 20:15 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Tondela2