GIL Vicente vs Arouca: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:15 WAT, Monday 11 May: GIL Vicente v Arouca in the Primeira Liga, played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos. In the table, GIL Vicente are 7th, upper half, on 18 points after 11 matches; Arouca are 5th (upper half) with 20. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
GIL Vicente, last 5: WDWDL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Casa Pia, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Arouca, last 5: WWLLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Estrela, at home. Goals for and against: 1.6 scored, 1.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give GIL Vicente 1.5 xG, Arouca 1.1 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 59%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – GIL Vicente 51%, draw 27%, Arouca 22%.
Lower-risk option: GIL Vicente or draw (78%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.77.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.36). Most likely score in line with that pick: GIL Vicente 1–1 Arouca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
GIL Vicente51%fair 1.97 · @1.66
Draw27%fair 3.74 · @3.75
Arouca22%fair 4.47 · @4.90
2.51Expected goals
1.45GIL Vicente xG
1.06Arouca xG
59%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–012%
2–19%
0–19%
2–09%
0–08%
From our goals model: GIL Vicente 1.5 – 1.1 Arouca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
GIL Vicente to win✗
51%
1.97
1.66
Double chance
GIL Vicente or draw✗
78%
1.29
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.70
1.77
Draw no bet
GIL Vicente (draw no bet)✗
69%
1.44
–
Asian handicap
Arouca +1 (Asian handicap)✓
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.95
1.95
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.38
1.36
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
1.12
First team to score
GIL Vicente to score first
53%
1.88
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT GIL Vicente / FT GIL Vicente✗
27%
3.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.04
–
Recent results
GIL Vicente – last 6
WDWDLL
27 Apr
vs Casa Pia
2–1
W
13 Apr
@ Tondela
2–2
D
3 Apr
vs AVS
3–0
W
8 Mar
@ Estrela
2–2
D
2 Mar
vs Benfica
1–2
L
22 Feb
@ Estoril
1–3
L
1.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Arouca – last 5
WWLLW
19 Apr
vs Estrela
1–0
W
6 Apr
vs Estoril
3–2
W
6 Mar
@ Famalicao
0–1
L
27 Feb
@ FC Porto
1–3
L
21 Feb
vs Nacional
3–0
W
1.6Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
40%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between GIL Vicente and Arouca.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
On our numbers GIL Vicente have a 51% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Arouca 22%.
How many goals will there be in GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
Our predicted score is GIL Vicente 1–1 Arouca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
GIL Vicente vs Arouca (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Monday 11 May 2026 at 20:15 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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