Tondela vs Moreirense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Tondela welcome Moreirense to Estádio João Cardoso for a Primeira Liga fixture on Monday 11 May (20:15 WAT).
Current form
Tondela, last 5: DDLLD Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Sporting CP, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Moreirense, last 4: WDDW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Estoril, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Moreirense, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.0 for Tondela.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Tondela 1.5 xG, Moreirense 1.0 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Tondela 51%, draw 25%, Moreirense 24%.
Lower-risk option: Tondela or draw (76%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.80.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Tondela or draw (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tondela 1–1 Moreirense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Tondela51%fair 1.97 · @1.87
Draw25%fair 3.95 · @3.55
Moreirense24%fair 4.16 · @3.95
2.55Expected goals
1.52Tondela xG
1.02Moreirense xG
54%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–012%
2–19%
2–09%
0–18%
0–08%
From our goals model: Tondela 1.5 – 1.0 Moreirense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tondela to win✓
51%
1.97
1.87
Double chance
Tondela or draw✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
1.80
Draw no bet
Tondela (draw no bet)✓
68%
1.47
–
Asian handicap
Moreirense +1 (Asian handicap)✗
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.40
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.89
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.14
1.09
First team to score
Tondela to score first✓
55%
1.81
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tondela / FT Tondela✓
29%
3.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.75
–
Recent results
Tondela – last 6
DDLLDW
29 Apr
@ Sporting CP
2–2
D
13 Apr
vs GIL Vicente
2–2
D
3 Apr
@ Guimaraes
0–5
L
9 Mar
vs Rio Ave
0–1
L
1 Mar
vs Santa Clara
2–2
D
20 Feb
@ Estrela
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Moreirense – last 4
WDDW
20 Apr
vs Estoril
1–0
W
10 Apr
@ Famalicao
1–1
D
1 Mar
@ Casa Pia
1–1
D
16 Feb
@ Rio Ave
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
75%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tondela and Moreirense.
Our pick is Tondela or draw with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Tondela vs Moreirense?
On our numbers Tondela have a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Moreirense 24%.
How many goals will there be in Tondela vs Moreirense?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tondela vs Moreirense?
Our predicted score is Tondela 1–1 Moreirense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Tondela vs Moreirense?
Tondela vs Moreirense (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Monday 11 May 2026 at 20:15 (West Africa Time) at Estádio João Cardoso.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
