Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Picks by market
ResultAtletico-MG to win53% · @1.90
Double chanceAtletico-MG or draw79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score52% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110% · fair 10.39
Atletico-MG vs Atletico Paranaense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
21:30 WAT, Sunday 5 April: Atletico-MG v Atletico Paranaense in the Serie A, played at Arena MRV. In the table, Atletico-MG are 7th, upper half, on 50 points after 34 matches; Atletico Paranaense are 5th (upper half) with 54.
Current form
Atletico-MG, last 5: WWWLD Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Chapecoense-sc, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.5 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Atletico Paranaense, last 5: LWWLD Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Bahia, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Atletico-MG, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.2 for Atletico Paranaense.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atletico-MG 1.7 xG, Atletico Paranaense 1.0 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atletico-MG 53%, draw 26%, Atletico Paranaense 21%.
Lower-risk option: Atletico-MG or draw (79%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.85.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Atletico-MG or draw (79%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atletico-MG 1–0 Atletico Paranaense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atletico-MG53%fair 1.90 · @1.90
Draw26%fair 3.81 · @3.35
Atletico Paranaense21%fair 4.73 · @4.10
2.64Expected goals
1.65Atletico-MG xG
0.99Atletico Paranaense xG
52%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
1–112%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%
From our goals model: Atletico-MG 1.7 – 1.0 Atletico Paranaense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Atletico-MG
Atletico Paranaense
Attack vs Serie A average
-3%
+14%
Goals conceded vs average
-20%
+15%
Our expected goals here
1.70
1.05
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico-MG to win
53%
1.90
1.90
Double chance
Atletico-MG or draw
79%
1.27
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
52%
1.93
1.85
Draw no bet
Atletico-MG (draw no bet)
71%
1.40
–
Asian handicap
Atletico Paranaense +1 (Asian handicap)
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
71%
1.40
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
53%
1.88
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
74%
1.35
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
87%
1.15
1.08
First team to score
Atletico-MG to score first
58%
1.72
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico-MG / FT Atletico-MG
32%
3.10
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
10%
10.39
–
Recent results
Atletico-MG – last 6
WWWLDW
2 Apr
@ Chapecoense-sc
4–0
W
19 Mar
vs Sao Paulo
1–0
W
11 Mar
vs Internacional
1–0
W
26 Feb
@ Gremio
1–2
L
22 Feb
vs America Mineiro
1–1
D
14 Feb
@ Itabirito
7–2
W
2.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Atletico Paranaense – last 6
LWWLDL
2 Apr
@ Bahia
0–3
L
29 Mar
vs Botafogo
4–1
W
18 Mar
vs Cruzeiro
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Fluminense
2–3
L
25 Feb
@ RB Bragantino
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Londrina
0–1
L
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico-MG and Atletico Paranaense.
What is the prediction for Atletico-MG vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our pick is Atletico-MG or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Atletico-MG vs Atletico Paranaense?
On our numbers Atletico-MG have a 53% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Atletico Paranaense 21%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico-MG vs Atletico Paranaense?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico-MG vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our predicted score is Atletico-MG 1–0 Atletico Paranaense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Atletico-MG vs Atletico Paranaense?
Atletico-MG vs Atletico Paranaense (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena MRV.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
