Value bet: Palmeiras to win @ 2.64 – our chance 43% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultPalmeiras to win ✓43% · @2.64
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓9% · fair 10.79
Bahia vs Palmeiras: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 5 April the Serie A brings Bahia against Palmeiras at Arena Fonte Nova. Kick-off: 23:30 WAT. In the table, Bahia are 6th, upper half, on 53 points after 34 matches; Palmeiras are 2nd (among the top four) with 73. There are 20 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Bahia, last 5: WWWDW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Atletico Paranaense, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Palmeiras, last 5: WWWLW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Gremio, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Bahia 1.1 xG, Palmeiras 1.5 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 61%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Bahia 31%, draw 26%, Palmeiras 43%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.65.
Price worth noting: Palmeiras to win @2.64 – the bookmaker implies 38%, our ratings say 43%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Bahia 1–1 Palmeiras. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Bahia31%fair 3.22 · @2.70
Draw26%fair 3.80 · @3.15
Palmeiras43%fair 2.35 · @2.64
2.65Expected goals
1.12Bahia xG
1.53Palmeiras xG
61%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
0–28%
1–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Bahia 1.1 – 1.5 Palmeiras expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Bahia
Palmeiras
Attack vs Serie A average
+9%
+41%
Goals conceded vs average
+0%
-42%
Our expected goals here
0.96
1.61
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Palmeiras to win✓
43%
2.35
2.64 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.36
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.64
1.65
Draw no bet
Palmeiras (draw no bet)✓
58%
1.73
–
Asian handicap
Bahia +1 (Asian handicap)
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.98
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.40
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
1.11
First team to score
Palmeiras to score first✓
54%
1.86
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Palmeiras / FT Palmeiras✓
28%
3.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
9%
10.79
–
Recent results
Bahia – last 6
WWWDWL
2 Apr
vs Atletico Paranaense
3–0
W
18 Mar
vs RB Bragantino
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Internacional
1–0
W
12 Mar
vs Vitoria
1–1
D
22 Feb
@ Atlético Alagoinhas
4–2
W
18 Feb
@ O'Higgins
0–1
L
1.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Palmeiras – last 6
WWWLWW
3 Apr
vs Gremio
2–1
W
22 Mar
@ Sao Paulo
1–0
W
18 Mar
vs Botafogo
2–1
W
12 Mar
@ Vasco DA Gama
1–2
L
9 Mar
@ Novorizontino
2–1
W
5 Mar
vs Novorizontino
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bahia and Palmeiras.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Bahia vs Palmeiras?
On our numbers Bahia have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Palmeiras 43%.
How many goals will there be in Bahia vs Palmeiras?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bahia vs Palmeiras?
Our predicted score is Bahia 1–1 Palmeiras, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Bahia vs Palmeiras?
Bahia vs Palmeiras (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Fonte Nova.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
