Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.22
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Atletico-MG to win @ 2.94 – our chance 39% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultAtletico-MG to win39% · @2.94
Double chanceEither team to win72% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score50% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–28% · fair 12.09
Coritiba vs Atletico-MG: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 19 April the Serie A brings Coritiba against Atletico-MG. Kick-off: 20:00 WAT. In the table, Coritiba are 12th, lower half, on 42 points after 34 matches; Atletico-MG are 7th (upper half) with 50.
Current form
Coritiba, last 5: DDWWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Fluminense, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.6 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Atletico-MG, last 5: WLLWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Juventud, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Coritiba 1.1 xG, Atletico-MG 1.3 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 50%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Coritiba 34%, draw 28%, Atletico-MG 39%.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Atletico-MG to win @2.94 – the bookmaker implies 34%, our ratings say 39%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Coritiba 1–1 Atletico-MG. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Coritiba34%fair 2.97 · @2.46
Draw28%fair 3.62 · @3.10
Atletico-MG39%fair 2.58 · @2.94
2.33Expected goals
1.07Coritiba xG
1.26Atletico-MG xG
50%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–010%
1–28%
0–28%
From our goals model: Coritiba 1.1 – 1.3 Atletico-MG expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Coritiba
Atletico-MG
Attack vs Serie A average
-20%
-3%
Goals conceded vs average
+18%
-20%
Our expected goals here
0.99
1.31
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico-MG to win
39%
2.58
2.94 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
72%
1.38
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
50%
1.99
1.85
Draw no bet
Atletico-MG (draw no bet)
53%
1.87
–
Asian handicap
Coritiba +1 (Asian handicap)
77%
1.31
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
67%
1.49
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
58%
1.71
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
78%
1.28
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
90%
1.11
1.06
First team to score
Atletico-MG to score first
49%
2.05
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico-MG / FT Atletico-MG
23%
4.27
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
8%
12.09
–
Recent results
Coritiba – last 5
DDWWL
5 Apr
vs Fluminense
1–1
D
2 Apr
vs Vasco DA Gama
1–1
D
19 Mar
@ Mirassol
1–0
W
12 Mar
@ Corinthians
2–0
W
25 Feb
vs Sao Paulo
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Atletico-MG – last 6
WLLWWW
16 Apr
vs Juventud
2–1
W
12 Apr
@ Santos
0–1
L
9 Apr
@ Puerto Cabello
1–2
L
2 Apr
@ Chapecoense-sc
4–0
W
19 Mar
vs Sao Paulo
1–0
W
11 Mar
vs Internacional
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Coritiba and Atletico-MG.
What is the prediction for Coritiba vs Atletico-MG?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Coritiba vs Atletico-MG?
On our numbers Coritiba have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Atletico-MG 39%.
How many goals will there be in Coritiba vs Atletico-MG?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Coritiba vs Atletico-MG?
Our predicted score is Coritiba 1–1 Atletico-MG, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Coritiba vs Atletico-MG?
Coritiba vs Atletico-MG (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
