Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.90 – our chance 57% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultSantos to win39% · @2.52
Double chanceEither team to win74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score57% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals75% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 11.50
Santos vs Fluminense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Santos welcome Fluminense to Estadio Urbano Caldeira for a Serie A fixture on Sunday 19 April (20:00 WAT). In the table, Santos are 9th, upper half, on 47 points after 34 matches; Fluminense are 4th (among the top four) with 57.
Current form
Santos, last 5: DWLWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Deportivo Recoleta, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 5. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Fluminense, last 5: LDDWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Independ. Rivadavia, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Santos 1.4 xG, Fluminense 1.3 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Santos 39%, draw 26%, Fluminense 35%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.90.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.90 – the bookmaker implies 53%, our ratings say 57%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (71%, odds 1.42). Most likely score in line with that pick: Santos 1–1 Fluminense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Santos39%fair 2.56 · @2.52
Draw26%fair 3.83 · @3.15
Fluminense35%fair 2.87 · @2.82
2.68Expected goals
1.42Santos xG
1.26Fluminense xG
57%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–19%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Santos 1.4 – 1.3 Fluminense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Santos
Fluminense
Attack vs Serie A average
+11%
+22%
Goals conceded vs average
-7%
-8%
Our expected goals here
1.56
1.29
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Santos to win
39%
2.56
2.52
Double chance
Either team to win
74%
1.35
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
57%
1.75
1.90 ▲
Draw no bet
Santos (draw no bet)
53%
1.89
–
Asian handicap
Fluminense +1 (Asian handicap)
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
71%
1.42
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
54%
1.85
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
75%
1.34
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
88%
1.14
1.06
First team to score
Santos to score first
49%
2.03
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Santos / FT Santos
24%
4.20
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
11.50
–
Recent results
Santos – last 6
DWLWLD
15 Apr
vs Deportivo Recoleta
1–1
D
12 Apr
vs Atletico-MG
1–0
W
8 Apr
@ Deportivo Cuenca
0–1
L
2 Apr
vs Remo
2–0
W
19 Mar
vs Internacional
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Corinthians
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Fluminense – last 6
LDDWLW
16 Apr
vs Independ. Rivadavia
1–2
L
7 Apr
@ Deportivo La Guaira
0–0
D
5 Apr
@ Coritiba
1–1
D
2 Apr
vs Corinthians
3–1
W
19 Mar
@ Vasco DA Gama
2–3
L
15 Mar
vs Atletico Paranaense
3–2
W
1.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Santos and Fluminense.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win Santos vs Fluminense?
On our numbers Santos have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Fluminense 35%.
How many goals will there be in Santos vs Fluminense?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santos vs Fluminense?
Our predicted score is Santos 1–1 Fluminense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Santos vs Fluminense?
Santos vs Fluminense (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Urbano Caldeira.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
