Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.93 – our chance 57% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultPalmeiras to win67% · @1.56
Double chancePalmeiras or draw87% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score57% · @1.93
GoalsOver 1.5 goals76% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110% · fair 10.47
Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Atletico Paranaense travel to face Palmeiras on Sunday 19 April in the Serie A, with Allianz Parque the venue – the ball rolls at 22:30 WAT. In the table, Palmeiras are 2nd, among the top four, on 73 points after 34 matches; Atletico Paranaense are 5th (upper half) with 54. There are 19 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Palmeiras, last 5: WDWWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Sporting Cristal, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Atletico Paranaense, last 5: LWWLD Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Bahia, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Palmeiras, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.2 for Atletico Paranaense.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Palmeiras 2.2 xG, Atletico Paranaense 0.8 xG – a total near 2.9. That is an open game on paper: 52% for three or more goals, 57% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Palmeiras 67%, draw 20%, Atletico Paranaense 13%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.93.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.93 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 57%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Palmeiras 2–0 Atletico Paranaense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Palmeiras67%fair 1.49 · @1.56
Draw20%fair 5.06 · @3.85
Atletico Paranaense13%fair 7.73 · @5.90
2.91Expected goals
2.16Palmeiras xG
0.75Atletico Paranaense xG
57%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–013%
1–012%
2–110%
3–09%
1–19%
3–17%
From our goals model: Palmeiras 2.2 – 0.8 Atletico Paranaense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Palmeiras
Atletico Paranaense
Attack vs Serie A average
+41%
+14%
Goals conceded vs average
-42%
+15%
Our expected goals here
2.47
0.76
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Palmeiras to win
67%
1.49
1.56 ▲
Double chance
Palmeiras or draw
87%
1.15
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
57%
1.77
1.93 ▲
Draw no bet
Palmeiras (draw no bet)
84%
1.19
–
Asian handicap
Palmeiras -0.5 (Asian handicap)
70%
1.44
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
76%
1.32
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
52%
1.91
1.93
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
69%
1.44
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
84%
1.19
1.10
First team to score
Palmeiras to score first
70%
1.43
–
Half-time result
Palmeiras ahead at half-time
50%
2.00
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Palmeiras / FT Palmeiras
46%
2.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
10%
10.47
–
Recent results
Palmeiras – last 6
WDWWWW
16 Apr
vs Sporting Cristal
2–1
W
9 Apr
@ Junior
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ Bahia
2–1
W
3 Apr
vs Gremio
2–1
W
22 Mar
@ Sao Paulo
1–0
W
18 Mar
vs Botafogo
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Atletico Paranaense – last 6
LWWLDL
2 Apr
@ Bahia
0–3
L
29 Mar
vs Botafogo
4–1
W
18 Mar
vs Cruzeiro
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Fluminense
2–3
L
25 Feb
@ RB Bragantino
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Londrina
0–1
L
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Palmeiras and Atletico Paranaense.
What is the prediction for Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense?
On our numbers Palmeiras have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Atletico Paranaense 13%.
How many goals will there be in Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our predicted score is Palmeiras 2–0 Atletico Paranaense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense?
Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Allianz Parque.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
