Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.91 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultFlamengo to win ✓66% · @1.50
Double chanceFlamengo or draw ✓87% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.91
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.29
Flamengo vs Bahia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Bahia travel to face Flamengo on Sunday 19 April in the Serie A, with Estádio do Maracanã the venue – the ball rolls at 23:30 WAT. In the table, Flamengo are 1st, leading the league, on 76 points after 34 matches; Bahia are 6th (upper half) with 53. There are 23 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Flamengo, last 5: WWLDW Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Independiente Medellin, at home. The attack is flying at 2.2 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Bahia, last 5: LWWWD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Palmeiras, at home. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Flamengo 2.1 xG, Bahia 0.8 xG – a total near 2.9. That is an open game on paper: 53% for three or more goals, 56% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Flamengo 66%, draw 21%, Bahia 13%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.91.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Flamengo 2–0 Bahia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Flamengo66%fair 1.51 · @1.50
Draw21%fair 4.82 · @4.00
Bahia13%fair 7.67 · @6.40
2.90Expected goals
2.10Flamengo xG
0.81Bahia xG
56%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Flamengo 2.1 – 0.8 Bahia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Flamengo
Bahia
Attack vs Serie A average
+54%
+9%
Goals conceded vs average
-29%
+0%
Our expected goals here
2.35
0.88
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Flamengo to win✓
66%
1.51
1.50
Double chance
Flamengo or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
1.91 ▲
Draw no bet
Flamengo (draw no bet)✓
84%
1.20
–
Asian handicap
Flamengo -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.88
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.35
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
1.12
First team to score
Flamengo to score first✓
68%
1.46
–
Half-time result
Flamengo ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Flamengo / FT Flamengo✓
44%
2.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.29
–
Recent results
Flamengo – last 6
WWLDWW
17 Apr
vs Independiente Medellin
4–1
W
9 Apr
@ Cusco
2–0
W
3 Apr
@ RB Bragantino
0–3
L
23 Mar
@ Corinthians
1–1
D
20 Mar
vs remo
3–0
W
15 Mar
@ Botafogo
3–0
W
2.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Bahia – last 6
LWWWDW
5 Apr
vs Palmeiras
1–2
L
2 Apr
vs Atletico Paranaense
3–0
W
18 Mar
vs RB Bragantino
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Internacional
1–0
W
12 Mar
vs Vitoria
1–1
D
22 Feb
@ Atlético Alagoinhas
4–2
W
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Flamengo and Bahia.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Flamengo vs Bahia?
On our numbers Flamengo have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Bahia 13%.
How many goals will there be in Flamengo vs Bahia?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Flamengo vs Bahia?
Our predicted score is Flamengo 2–0 Bahia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Flamengo vs Bahia?
Flamengo vs Bahia (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio do Maracanã.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
