Cruzeiro vs Gremio: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
00:30 WAT, Sunday 19 April: Cruzeiro v Gremio in the Serie A, played at Governador Magalhães Pinto. In the table, Cruzeiro are 3rd, among the top four, on 60 points after 34 matches; Gremio are 18th (in the drop zone) with 37. There are 23 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Cruzeiro, last 5: LWWLD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to U. Catolica, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Gremio, last 5: WDLDL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Deportivo Riestra, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Cruzeiro 1.9 xG, Gremio 0.9 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Cruzeiro 61%, draw 22%, Gremio 17%.
Lower-risk option: Cruzeiro or draw (83%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.90.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cruzeiro 2–0 Gremio. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Cruzeiro61%fair 1.65 · @1.67
Draw22%fair 4.45 · @3.60
Gremio17%fair 5.96 · @5.20
2.85Expected goals
1.95Cruzeiro xG
0.90Gremio xG
55%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–011%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%
From our goals model: Cruzeiro 1.9 – 0.9 Gremio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Cruzeiro
Gremio
Attack vs Serie A average
+35%
-16%
Goals conceded vs average
-1%
+2%
Our expected goals here
2.11
0.95
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cruzeiro to win✓
61%
1.65
1.67
Double chance
Cruzeiro or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.83
1.90
Draw no bet
Cruzeiro (draw no bet)✓
78%
1.28
–
Asian handicap
Cruzeiro -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.34
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
2.00
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.42
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.10
First team to score
Cruzeiro to score first✓
64%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Cruzeiro ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cruzeiro / FT Cruzeiro✗
39%
2.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.10
–
Recent results
Cruzeiro – last 6
LWWLDL
15 Apr
vs U. Catolica
1–2
L
8 Apr
@ Barcelona SC
1–0
W
2 Apr
vs Vitoria
3–0
W
18 Mar
@ Atletico Paranaense
1–2
L
16 Mar
vs Vasco DA Gama
3–3
D
12 Mar
@ Flamengo
0–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Gremio – last 6
WDLDLW
14 Apr
vs Deportivo Riestra
1–0
W
12 Apr
@ Internacional
0–0
D
9 Apr
@ Atletico Torque
0–1
L
6 Apr
vs Remo
0–0
D
3 Apr
@ Palmeiras
1–2
L
19 Mar
vs Vitoria
2–0
W
0.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cruzeiro and Gremio.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Cruzeiro vs Gremio?
On our numbers Cruzeiro have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Gremio 17%.
How many goals will there be in Cruzeiro vs Gremio?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cruzeiro vs Gremio?
Our predicted score is Cruzeiro 2–0 Gremio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Cruzeiro vs Gremio?
Cruzeiro vs Gremio (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Governador Magalhães Pinto.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
