Value bet: Atletico-MG to win @ 1.76 – our chance 61% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAtletico-MG to win ✓61% · @1.76
Double chanceAtletico-MG or draw ✓81% · @1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.29
Atletico-MG vs Gremio: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 16 August the Serie A brings Atletico-MG against Gremio at Arena MRV. Kick-off: 20:00 WAT. In the table, Atletico-MG are 7th, upper half, on 50 points after 34 matches; Gremio are 18th (in the drop zone) with 37. There are 13 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Atletico-MG, last 5: WDWDW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over RB Bragantino, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Gremio, last 5: WWDLD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Sao Paulo, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Atletico-MG, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.3 for Gremio.
Head to head
When they last met (26 Feb 2026) it ended Gremio 2–1 Atletico-MG.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atletico-MG 1.7 xG, Gremio 0.8 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 50%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atletico-MG 61%, draw 21%, Gremio 19%.
Lower-risk option: Atletico-MG or draw (81%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: NG (50%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Atletico-MG to win @1.76 – the bookmaker implies 57%, our ratings say 61%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (74%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atletico-MG 1–0 Gremio. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atletico-MG61%fair 1.65 · @1.76
Draw21%fair 4.84 · @3.55
Gremio19%fair 5.38 · @4.55
2.53Expected goals
1.73Atletico-MG xG
0.81Gremio xG
50%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Atletico-MG 1.7 – 0.8 Gremio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Atletico-MG vs Gremio?
On our numbers Atletico-MG have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Gremio 19%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico-MG vs Gremio?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico-MG vs Gremio?
Our predicted score is Atletico-MG 1–0 Gremio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Atletico-MG vs Gremio?
Atletico-MG vs Gremio (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena MRV.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
