Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Flamengo to win @ 1.90 – our chance 62% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultFlamengo to win ✓62% · @1.90
Double chanceFlamengo or draw ✓86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.77
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.39
Mirassol vs Flamengo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Mirassol welcome Flamengo to Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia for a Serie A fixture on Sunday 16 August (22:30 WAT). In the table, Mirassol are 14th, lower half, on 40 points after 34 matches; Flamengo are 1st (leading the league) with 76. There are 36 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Mirassol, last 5: DLLDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with LDU de Quito, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Flamengo, last 5: DWDDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Cruzeiro, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Momentum favours Flamengo, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.0 for Mirassol.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mirassol 0.8 xG, Flamengo 1.9 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mirassol 14%, draw 24%, Flamengo 62%.
Lower-risk option: Flamengo or draw (86%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.77.
Price worth noting: Flamengo to win @1.90 – the bookmaker implies 53%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Flamengo or draw (86%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.16, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mirassol 0–1 Flamengo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mirassol14%fair 7.24 · @4.00
Draw24%fair 4.09 · @3.40
Flamengo62%fair 1.62 · @1.90
2.64Expected goals
0.78Mirassol xG
1.86Flamengo xG
56%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–113%
0–212%
1–110%
1–210%
0–38%
0–07%
From our goals model: Mirassol 0.8 – 1.9 Flamengo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Flamengo to win✓
62%
1.62
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Flamengo or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.79
1.77
Draw no bet
Flamengo (draw no bet)✓
82%
1.22
–
Asian handicap
Flamengo -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
72%
1.38
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
86%
1.16
1.10
First team to score
Flamengo to score first✓
65%
1.53
–
Half-time result
Flamengo ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Flamengo / FT Flamengo✓
40%
2.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.39
–
Recent results
Mirassol – last 6
DLLDWD
13 Aug
vs LDU de Quito
1–1
D
9 Aug
@ Cruzeiro
1–3
L
5 Aug
@ Gremio
0–1
L
2 Aug
vs Gremio
1–1
D
29 Jul
vs Remo
2–1
W
26 Jul
@ Vasco DA Gama
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Flamengo – last 6
DWDDWW
13 Aug
@ Cruzeiro
1–1
D
9 Aug
vs Vitoria
2–0
W
29 Jul
@ Internacional
1–1
D
26 Jul
vs Sao Paulo
1–1
D
23 Jul
@ Chapecoense-sc
4–0
W
18 Jul
vs Olimpia
4–2
W
2.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mirassol and Flamengo.
Our pick is Flamengo or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Mirassol vs Flamengo?
On our numbers Mirassol have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Flamengo 62%.
How many goals will there be in Mirassol vs Flamengo?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mirassol vs Flamengo?
Our predicted score is Mirassol 0–1 Flamengo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Mirassol vs Flamengo?
Mirassol vs Flamengo (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
