Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Cruzeiro to win @ 3.30 – our chance 33% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultCorinthians to win ✗44% · @2.24
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.90
Corinthians vs Cruzeiro: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 16 August the Serie A brings Corinthians against Cruzeiro at Neo Química Arena. Kick-off: 23:30 WAT. In the table, Corinthians are 17th, lower half, on 37 points after 34 matches; Cruzeiro are 3rd (among the top four) with 60. There are 23 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Corinthians, last 5: DWWLD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Rosario Central, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Cruzeiro, last 5: DWWDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Flamengo, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Head to head
When they last met (26 Feb 2026) it ended Cruzeiro 1–1 Corinthians.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Corinthians 1.3 xG, Cruzeiro 1.1 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 52%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Corinthians 44%, draw 23%, Cruzeiro 33%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Cruzeiro to win @3.30 – the bookmaker implies 30%, our ratings say 33%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (79%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Corinthians 1–1 Cruzeiro. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Corinthians44%fair 2.27 · @2.24
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @3.10
Cruzeiro33%fair 3.08 · @3.30
2.34Expected goals
1.29Corinthians xG
1.05Cruzeiro xG
52%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–010%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Corinthians 1.3 – 1.1 Cruzeiro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Corinthians vs Cruzeiro?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Corinthians vs Cruzeiro?
On our numbers Corinthians have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Cruzeiro 33%.
How many goals will there be in Corinthians vs Cruzeiro?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Corinthians vs Cruzeiro?
Our predicted score is Corinthians 1–1 Cruzeiro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Corinthians vs Cruzeiro?
Corinthians vs Cruzeiro (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Neo Química Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
