Vasco DA Gama 63%Draw 22%Santos 15%Expected goals 1.89 – 0.80
85%
Betarazi pick
Vasco DA Gama or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Vasco DA Gama to win @ 1.93 – our chance 63% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultVasco DA Gama to win ✗63% · @1.93
Double chanceVasco DA Gama or draw ✗85% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.31
Vasco DA Gama vs Santos: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 16 August the Serie A brings Vasco DA Gama against Santos at Estádio São Januário. Kick-off: 20:00 WAT. In the table, Vasco DA Gama are 13th, lower half, on 41 points after 33 matches; Santos are 9th (upper half) with 47.
Current form
Vasco DA Gama, last 5: DDWDW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Olimpia, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Santos, last 5: WLWDW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Macara, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (26 Feb 2026) it ended Santos 2–1 Vasco DA Gama.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Vasco DA Gama 1.9 xG, Santos 0.8 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Vasco DA Gama 63%, draw 22%, Santos 15%.
Lower-risk option: Vasco DA Gama or draw (85%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Vasco DA Gama to win @1.93 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 63%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Vasco DA Gama or draw (85%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.18, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Vasco DA Gama 1–0 Santos. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Vasco DA Gama63%fair 1.59 · @1.93
Draw22%fair 4.61 · @3.40
Santos15%fair 6.53 · @3.85
2.69Expected goals
1.89Vasco DA Gama xG
0.80Santos xG
54%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Vasco DA Gama 1.9 – 0.8 Santos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Vasco DA Gama vs Santos?
Our pick is Vasco DA Gama or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Vasco DA Gama vs Santos?
On our numbers Vasco DA Gama have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Santos 15%.
How many goals will there be in Vasco DA Gama vs Santos?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vasco DA Gama vs Santos?
Our predicted score is Vasco DA Gama 1–0 Santos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Vasco DA Gama vs Santos?
Vasco DA Gama vs Santos (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio São Januário.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
