Sao Paulo vs Coritiba: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Coritiba travel to face Sao Paulo on Sunday 16 August in the Serie A, with MorumBIS the venue – the ball rolls at 01:00 WAT. In the table, Sao Paulo are 10th, upper half, on 44 points after 34 matches; Coritiba are 12th (lower half) with 42. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Sao Paulo, last 5: DLDLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Bolívar, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Coritiba, last 5: WLDLL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Chapecoense-sc, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (25 Feb 2026) it ended Coritiba 0–1 Sao Paulo.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sao Paulo 1.8 xG, Coritiba 0.8 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sao Paulo 60%, draw 25%, Coritiba 15%.
Lower-risk option: Sao Paulo or draw (85%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.90.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (74%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sao Paulo 1–0 Coritiba. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sao Paulo60%fair 1.66 · @1.65
Draw25%fair 3.96 · @3.65
Coritiba15%fair 6.82 · @5.20
2.55Expected goals
1.78Sao Paulo xG
0.77Coritiba xG
53%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Sao Paulo 1.8 – 0.8 Coritiba expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Sao Paulo vs Coritiba?
On our numbers Sao Paulo have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Coritiba 15%.
How many goals will there be in Sao Paulo vs Coritiba?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sao Paulo vs Coritiba?
Our predicted score is Sao Paulo 1–0 Coritiba, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Sao Paulo vs Coritiba?
Sao Paulo vs Coritiba (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at MorumBIS.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
