Value bet: Santos to win @ 1.85 – our chance 57% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSantos to win ✗57% · @1.85
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.11
Santos vs Mirassol: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Santos welcome Mirassol to Estádio Urbano Caldeira for a Serie A fixture on Sunday 23 August (22:30 WAT). In the table, Santos are 9th, upper half, on 47 points after 34 matches; Mirassol are 14th (lower half) with 40.
Current form
Santos, last 5: DWWLW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Macara, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Mirassol, last 5: DLDLL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with LDU de Quito, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Santos, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.5 for Mirassol.
Head to head
When they last met (11 Mar 2026) it ended Mirassol 2–2 Santos.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Santos 1.8 xG, Mirassol 1.0 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 55%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Santos 57%, draw 21%, Mirassol 22%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Santos to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 57%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (57%, odds 1.75). Most likely score in line with that pick: Santos 1–1 Mirassol. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Santos57%fair 1.74 · @1.85
Draw21%fair 4.84 · @3.30
Mirassol22%fair 4.54 · @3.90
2.89Expected goals
1.85Santos xG
1.04Mirassol xG
57%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–010%
2–110%
2–010%
3–16%
3–06%
From our goals model: Santos 1.8 – 1.0 Mirassol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Santos vs Mirassol?
On our numbers Santos have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Mirassol 22%.
How many goals will there be in Santos vs Mirassol?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santos vs Mirassol?
Our predicted score is Santos 1–1 Mirassol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Santos vs Mirassol?
Santos vs Mirassol (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
