Good pick · fair odds 1.68 · bookmaker 1.70 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.70Odds
2
Value bet: Bahia to win @ 2.62 – our chance 41% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultBahia to win ✓41% · @2.62
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.97
Vitoria vs Bahia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Bahia travel to face Vitoria on Sunday 23 August in the Serie A, with Estádio Manoel Barradas the venue – the ball rolls at 20:00 WAT. In the table, Vitoria are 15th, lower half, on 38 points after 34 matches; Bahia are 6th (upper half) with 53. There are 15 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Vitoria, last 5: WLWLL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Botafogo, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Bahia, last 5: DDDDD Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with Chapecoense-sc, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Head to head
When they last met (12 Mar 2026) it ended Bahia 1–1 Vitoria.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Vitoria 1.2 xG, Bahia 1.3 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Vitoria 36%, draw 23%, Bahia 41%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Bahia to win @2.62 – the bookmaker implies 38%, our ratings say 41%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (60%, odds 1.70). Most likely score in line with that pick: Vitoria 1–1 Bahia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Vitoria36%fair 2.77 · @2.50
Draw23%fair 4.34 · @3.10
Bahia41%fair 2.45 · @2.62
2.52Expected goals
1.21Vitoria xG
1.31Bahia xG
60%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
1–28%
0–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Vitoria 1.2 – 1.3 Bahia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Vitoria vs Bahia?
On our numbers Vitoria have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Bahia 41%.
How many goals will there be in Vitoria vs Bahia?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vitoria vs Bahia?
Our predicted score is Vitoria 1–1 Bahia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Vitoria vs Bahia?
Vitoria vs Bahia (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Manoel Barradas.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
