Value bet: Nueva Chicago to win @ 3.50 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAlmagro to win ✗42% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.44
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.57
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓71% · fair 1.41
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.37
Almagro vs Nueva Chicago: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Almagro welcome Nueva Chicago to Estadio Tres de Febrero for a Primera Nacional fixture on Sunday 27 September (19:30 WAT). In the table, Almagro are 15th, lower half, on 42 points after 36 matches; Nueva Chicago are 17th (in the drop zone) with 37.
Current form
Almagro, last 5: LDLWD Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Temperley, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Nueva Chicago, last 5: DLWLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Patronato, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Head to head
When they last met (11 May 2026) it ended Nueva Chicago 1–2 Almagro.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Almagro 1.0 xG, Nueva Chicago 0.9 xG – a total near 1.9. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 71%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Almagro 42%, draw 26%, Nueva Chicago 32%.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.57.
Price worth noting: Nueva Chicago to win @3.50 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 32%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Not both teams to score (51%, odds 1.57). Most likely score in line with that pick: Almagro 1–0 Nueva Chicago. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Almagro42%fair 2.40 · @2.30
Draw26%fair 3.81 · @2.70
Nueva Chicago32%fair 3.11 · @3.50
1.88Expected goals
1.03Almagro xG
0.85Nueva Chicago xG
49%Both score
29%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
0–015%
1–113%
0–113%
2–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Almagro 1.0 – 0.9 Nueva Chicago expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Almagro vs Nueva Chicago?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Almagro vs Nueva Chicago?
On our numbers Almagro have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Nueva Chicago 32%.
How many goals will there be in Almagro vs Nueva Chicago?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 29% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Almagro vs Nueva Chicago?
Our predicted score is Almagro 1–0 Nueva Chicago, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Almagro vs Nueva Chicago?
Almagro vs Nueva Chicago (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Tres de Febrero.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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