Patronato v San Martin S.J. Prediction & Expected Goals (27 Sep) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultSan Martin S.J. to win ✗41% · @2.80

Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.44

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.20

GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗70% · fair 1.43

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7% · fair 14.33

Patronato vs San Martin S.J.: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

San Martin S.J. travel to face Patronato on Sunday 27 September in the Primera Nacional – the ball rolls at 20:00 WAT. In the table, Patronato are 16th, in the drop zone, on 38 points after 36 matches; San Martin S.J. are 9th (upper half) with 51. There are 13 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

Patronato, last 5: DDDLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Nueva Chicago, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

San Martin S.J., last 5: WDLWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Colegiales, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours San Martin S.J., collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.2 for Patronato.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Patronato 0.9 xG, San Martin S.J. 1.0 xG – a total near 1.9. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 70%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Patronato 32%, draw 27%, San Martin S.J. 41%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.20.
Price worth noting: San Martin S.J. to win @2.80 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 41%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (51%, odds 2.20 – longer than our fair 1.94, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Patronato 1–1 San Martin S.J.. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Patronato32%fair 3.08 · @2.75

Draw27%fair 3.76 · @2.62

San Martin S.J.41%fair 2.44 · @2.80

1.92Expected goals

0.88Patronato xG

1.04San Martin S.J. xG

51%Both score

30%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–115%

0–015%

1–113%

1–013%

0–28%

1–27%

From our goals model: Patronato 0.9 – 1.0 San Martin S.J. expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	San Martin S.J. to win ✗	41%	2.44	2.80 ▲
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	73%	1.36	1.44 ▲
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	51%	1.94	2.20 ▲
Draw no bet	San Martin S.J. (draw no bet) ✗	56%	1.79	–
Asian handicap	Patronato +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	61%	1.63	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	57%	1.75	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	70%	1.43	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	87%	1.15	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	95%	1.05	–
First team to score	San Martin S.J. to score first ✗	46%	2.16	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	51%	1.96	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Draw / FT Draw ✗	23%	4.40	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2 ✗	7%	14.33	–

Patronato – last 6

DDDLWD

21 Sep	@ Nueva Chicago	1–1	D
13 Sep	vs Temperley	0–0	D
6 Sep	@ Deportivo Maipu	0–0	D
30 Aug	vs Almagro	0–1	L
26 Aug	vs Atlanta	2–0	W
22 Aug	vs Gimnasia Jujuy	3–3	D

1.0Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

33%Both scored

17%Over 2.5

San Martin S.J. – last 6

WDLWWW

20 Sep	vs Colegiales	2–0	W
16 Sep	vs Tristan Suarez	0–0	D
12 Sep	@ Quilmes	0–1	L
6 Sep	vs Midland	3–2	W
30 Aug	@ Atlanta	1–0	W
22 Aug	vs Gimnasia Y Tiro	3–1	W

1.5Scored / game

0.7Conceded / game

33%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tristan Suarez	36	16	16	4	+18	64
2	Atlanta	36	19	5	12	+8	62
3	Temperley	36	16	13	7	+12	61
4	Gimnasia Jujuy	36	16	10	10	+4	58
5	Midland	36	15	10	11	+14	55
6	Deportivo Maipu	36	14	10	12	+9	52
7	Colegiales	36	14	10	12	+4	52
8	Gimnasia Y Tiro	36	14	10	12	+2	52
9	San Martin S.J.	36	13	12	11	+6	51
10	San Martin Tucuman	36	11	14	11	+2	47
11	Atletico DE Rafaela	36	12	11	13	-6	47
12	Agropecuario	36	12	10	14	-8	46
13	Quilmes	36	12	9	15	+3	45
14	Chacarita Juniors	36	12	6	18	-6	42
15	Almagro	36	11	9	16	-11	42
16	Patronato	36	7	17	12	-6	38
17	Nueva Chicago	36	9	10	17	-11	37
18	Club Atlético Güemes	36	6	9	21	-34	27

Team

Pts

+18

+12

+14

-6

-8

-6

-11

-6

-11

-34

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Patronato vs San Martin S.J.?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.20.

Who will win Patronato vs San Martin S.J.?

On our numbers Patronato have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 27% and San Martin S.J. 41%.

How many goals will there be in Patronato vs San Martin S.J.?

We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 30% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Patronato vs San Martin S.J.?

Our predicted score is Patronato 1–1 San Martin S.J., the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.

When is Patronato vs San Martin S.J.?

Patronato vs San Martin S.J. (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Patronato v San Martin S.J.: numbers & prediction