Barretos v Nacional SP Prediction & Expected Goals (28 Mar) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultBarretos to win60% · @1.70

Double chanceBarretos or draw85% · @1.12

Both teams scoreNot both teams to score54% · @1.60

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals82% · @1.18

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–019% · fair 5.17

Barretos vs Nacional SP: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Barretos welcome Nacional SP for a Paulista A4 fixture on Saturday 28 March (20:00 WAT).

Current form

Barretos, last 3: DLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Penapolense, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.

Nacional SP, last 4: DWLL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with ECUS, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Barretos 1.5 xG, Nacional SP 0.6 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 64%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Barretos 60%, draw 26%, Nacional SP 15%.
GG/NG: NG (54%) at 1.60.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (64%, odds 1.55). Most likely score in line with that pick: Barretos 1–0 Nacional SP. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Barretos60%fair 1.67 · @1.70

Draw26%fair 3.91 · @3.30

Nacional SP15%fair 6.83 · @4.75

2.02Expected goals

1.46Barretos xG

0.56Nacional SP xG

46%Both score

36%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–019%

2–014%

0–013%

1–111%

2–18%

0–17%

From our goals model: Barretos 1.5 – 0.6 Nacional SP expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Barretos to win	60%	1.67	1.70
Double chance	Barretos or draw	85%	1.17	1.12
Both teams to score	Not both teams to score	54%	1.84	1.60
Draw no bet	Barretos (draw no bet)	80%	1.25	–
Asian handicap	Nacional SP +1.5 (Asian handicap)	69%	1.45	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals	62%	1.60	1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals	64%	1.57	1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals	82%	1.22	1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals	95%	1.06	–
First team to score	Barretos to score first	63%	1.59	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time	48%	2.09	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Barretos / FT Barretos	36%	2.80	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–0	19%	5.17	–

Barretos – last 3

DLW

25 Mar	@ Penapolense	1–1	D
19 Mar	vs Inter de Bebedouro	0–1	L
25 Feb	@ Jabaquara	1–0	W

0.7Scored / game

0.7Conceded / game

33%Both scored

0%Over 2.5

Nacional SP – last 4

DWLL

25 Mar	vs ECUS	0–0	D
19 Mar	@ AEA	3–2	W
4 Mar	vs Taquaritinga	0–4	L
25 Feb	vs EC Lemense	0–1	L

0.8Scored / game

1.8Conceded / game

25%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Barretos vs Nacional SP?

Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.

Who will win Barretos vs Nacional SP?

On our numbers Barretos have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Nacional SP 15%.

How many goals will there be in Barretos vs Nacional SP?

We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Barretos vs Nacional SP?

Our predicted score is Barretos 1–0 Nacional SP, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.

When is Barretos vs Nacional SP?

Barretos vs Nacional SP (Paulista A4) kicks off on Saturday 28 March 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Barretos v Nacional SP: numbers & prediction

Barretos

Nacional SP

Under 2.5 goals