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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Jabaquara v Comercial: numbers & prediction

Paulista A4 · Brazil

Jabaquara

DLLDL
Sat 28 Mar 2026

Comercial

WWLW
Jabaquara 29%Draw 24%Comercial 46% Expected goals 0.87 – 1.20
65%
Betarazi pick

Under 2.5 goals

Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.45

6/10Rating
1.45Odds

Picks by market

ResultComercial to win46% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score52% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–115% · fair 6.58

Jabaquara vs Comercial: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Saturday 28 March the Paulista A4 brings Jabaquara against Comercial. Kick-off: 19:00 WAT.

Current form

Jabaquara, last 5: DLLDL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with EC Lemense, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.

Comercial, last 4: WWLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Inter de Bebedouro, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Comercial, collecting 2.3 points per game to 0.4 for Jabaquara.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Jabaquara 0.9 xG, Comercial 1.2 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 65%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Jabaquara 29%, draw 24%, Comercial 46%.
  • GG/NG: NG (52%) at 1.62.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (65%, odds 1.45). Most likely score in line with that pick: Jabaquara 0–1 Comercial. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Jabaquara29%fair 3.41 · @3.20
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @2.95
Comercial46%fair 2.16 · @2.25
2.06Expected goals
0.87Jabaquara xG
1.20Comercial xG
48%Both score
35%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–115%
1–113%
0–013%
1–011%
0–29%
1–28%

From our goals model: Jabaquara 0.9 – 1.2 Comercial expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultComercial to win46%2.162.25
Double chanceEither team to win76%1.321.30
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score52%1.941.62
Draw no betComercial (draw no bet)61%1.63–
Asian handicapJabaquara +1 (Asian handicap)75%1.34–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals62%1.621.50
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals65%1.541.45
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals85%1.18–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals94%1.06–
First team to scoreComercial to score first51%1.98–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time49%2.05–
Half-time / full-timeHT Comercial / FT Comercial25%4.01–
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–115%6.58–

Recent results

Jabaquara – last 5

DLLDL
25 Mar@ EC Lemense0–0D
18 Mar@ Penapolense2–3L
8 Mar@ ECUS0–1L
4 Mar@ Vocem2–2D
25 Febvs Barretos0–1L
0.8Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5

Comercial – last 4

WWLW
26 Marvs Inter de Bebedouro1–0W
19 Marvs Vocem3–1W
4 Mar@ São Caetano1–2L
25 Feb@ Colorado Caieiras2–1W
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Jabaquara and Comercial.

Jabaquara vs Comercial head-to-head page →

More Paulista A4 predictions

– ECUS EC Lemense 142%2.95X24%3.00233%2.35 1.0–0.8xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 69%@1.45
– Tanabi Colorado Caieiras 159%1.91X21%3.30220%3.60 1.5–0.7xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 77%@1.30
– Barretos Nacional SP 160%1.70X26%3.30215%4.75 1.5–0.6xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 64%@1.55
– Inter de Bebedouro Taquaritinga 158%1.70X24%3.25218%5.00 1.5–0.7xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 64%@1.44
FT Grêmio Sãocarlense4 São Caetano1 147%2.45X25%3.00228%2.85 1.6–0.9xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 66%@1.50 ✓
FT Penapolense6 AEA0 178%1.05X12%11.00210%23.00 2.4–0.7xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 68%@1.25 ✓
FT Vocem0 Joseense1 136%2.95X25%2.88239%2.45 0.9–0.9xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 70%@1.38 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Jabaquara vs Comercial?

Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.

Who will win Jabaquara vs Comercial?

On our numbers Jabaquara have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Comercial 46%.

How many goals will there be in Jabaquara vs Comercial?

We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Jabaquara vs Comercial?

Our predicted score is Jabaquara 0–1 Comercial, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.

When is Jabaquara vs Comercial?

Jabaquara vs Comercial (Paulista A4) kicks off on Saturday 28 March 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.