Finland v Albania Prediction & Expected Goals (3 Oct) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultFinland to win ✓41% · @2.30

Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.35

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.95

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 11.50

Finland vs Albania: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Saturday 3 October the UEFA Nations League brings Finland against Albania at Helsinki Olympic Stadium. Kick-off: 14:00 WAT. In the table, Finland are 3rd on 7 points after 4 matches; Albania are 1st with 9. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Finland, last 5: DWLLW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Belarus, at home. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Albania, last 5: WWLLL Their latest outing: 3–0 win over San Marino, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Finland 1.6 xG, Albania 1.4 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 58% for three or more goals, 59% for GG.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Finland 41%, draw 23%, Albania 36%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.95.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (59%, odds 1.95 – longer than our fair 1.70, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Finland 1–1 Albania. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Finland41%fair 2.46 · @2.30

Draw23%fair 4.28 · @3.00

Albania36%fair 2.78 · @2.90

3.00Expected goals

1.55Finland xG

1.45Albania xG

59%Both score

58%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–111%

2–19%

1–28%

1–08%

0–17%

2–26%

From our goals model: Finland 1.6 – 1.4 Albania expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Finland to win ✓	41%	2.46	2.30
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	77%	1.31	1.35
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	59%	1.70	1.95 ▲
Draw no bet	Finland (draw no bet) ✓	53%	1.88	–
Asian handicap	Albania +1 (Asian handicap)	75%	1.33	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	80%	1.25	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	58%	1.73	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	65%	1.55	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	82%	1.23	–
First team to score	Finland to score first	49%	2.03	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	40%	2.52	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Finland / FT Finland ✗	24%	4.20	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✓	9%	11.50	–

Finland – last 5

DWLLW

29 Sep	vs Belarus	0–0	D
26 Sep	@ San Marino	7–0	W
5 Jun	@ Hungary	1–2	L
31 May	@ Germany	0–4	L
27 Mar	@ New Zealand	2–0	W

2.0Scored / game

1.2Conceded / game

20%Both scored

60%Over 2.5

Albania – last 6

WWLLLL

29 Sep	@ San Marino	3–0	W
26 Sep	vs Belarus	2–0	W
6 Jun	vs Luxembourg	0–1	L
3 Jun	vs Israel	0–1	L
31 Mar	@ Ukraine	0–1	L
26 Mar	@ Poland	1–2	L

1.0Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

17%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Albania	4	3	0	1	+5	9
2	Belarus	4	2	1	1	+3	7
3	Finland	4	2	1	1	+7	7
4	San Marino	4	0	0	4	-15	0

Team

Pts

-15

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Finland vs Albania?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.

Who will win Finland vs Albania?

On our numbers Finland have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Albania 36%.

How many goals will there be in Finland vs Albania?

We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Finland vs Albania?

Our predicted score is Finland 1–1 Albania, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.

When is Finland vs Albania?

Finland vs Albania (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Helsinki Olympic Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Finland v Albania: numbers & prediction