Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.40Odds
Picks by market
ResultIceland to win ✓65% · @1.40
Double chanceIceland or draw ✓84% · @1.08
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗68% · fair 1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗20% · fair 4.96
Iceland vs Bulgaria: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Iceland welcome Bulgaria to Ice Rink Laugardalur for a UEFA Nations League fixture on Saturday 3 October (17:00 WAT). In the table, Iceland are 1st on 8 points after 4 matches; Bulgaria are 3rd with 4.
Current form
Iceland, last 5: WDLLD Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Luxembourg, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Bulgaria, last 5: DLDLW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Estonia, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Iceland 1.5 xG, Bulgaria 0.5 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 68%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Iceland 65%, draw 18%, Bulgaria 16%.
GG/NG: NG (53%) at 1.75.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Iceland to win (65%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Iceland 1–0 Bulgaria. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Iceland65%fair 1.53 · @1.40
Draw18%fair 5.43 · @4.00
Bulgaria16%fair 6.15 · @7.00
2.00Expected goals
1.49Iceland xG
0.51Bulgaria xG
47%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–020%
2–015%
0–014%
1–110%
2–18%
3–07%
From our goals model: Iceland 1.5 – 0.5 Bulgaria expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Iceland to win✓
65%
1.53
1.40
Double chance
Iceland or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.08
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
53%
1.90
1.75
Draw no bet
Iceland (draw no bet)✓
80%
1.25
–
Asian handicap
Iceland -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
59%
1.68
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
95%
1.06
–
First team to score
Iceland to score first✓
64%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Iceland / FT Iceland✓
37%
2.68
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
20%
4.96
–
Recent results
Iceland – last 6
WDLLDL
29 Sep
@ Luxembourg
3–0
W
26 Sep
vs Estonia
1–1
D
10 Jun
@ Argentina
0–3
L
31 May
@ Japan
0–1
L
31 Mar
@ Haiti
1–1
D
26 Feb
@ Mexico
0–4
L
0.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Bulgaria – last 6
DLDLWW
29 Sep
vs Estonia
0–0
D
26 Sep
vs Luxembourg
1–2
L
5 Jun
@ Moldova
2–2
D
1 Jun
vs Montenegro
0–1
L
30 Mar
@ Indonesia
1–0
W
27 Mar
@ Solomon Islands
10–2
W
2.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Iceland and Bulgaria.
Our pick is Iceland to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Iceland vs Bulgaria?
On our numbers Iceland have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Bulgaria 16%.
How many goals will there be in Iceland vs Bulgaria?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Iceland vs Bulgaria?
Our predicted score is Iceland 1–0 Bulgaria, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Iceland vs Bulgaria?
Iceland vs Bulgaria (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Ice Rink Laugardalur.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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