Estonia vs Luxembourg: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Estonia welcome Luxembourg to A. Le Coq Arena for a UEFA Nations League fixture on Saturday 3 October (17:00 WAT). In the table, Estonia are 2nd on 6 points after 4 matches; Luxembourg are 4th with 3. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Estonia, last 4: DDWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Bulgaria, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Luxembourg, last 5: LWWLW Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Iceland, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Luxembourg, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.3 for Estonia.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Estonia 1.0 xG, Luxembourg 1.0 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 68%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Estonia 36%, draw 25%, Luxembourg 39%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.95.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (51%, odds 1.95). Most likely score in line with that pick: Estonia 1–1 Luxembourg. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Estonia36%fair 2.76 · @2.88
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @2.90
Luxembourg39%fair 2.55 · @2.45
2.00Expected goals
0.97Estonia xG
1.03Luxembourg xG
51%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
0–014%
1–114%
1–013%
0–27%
1–27%
From our goals model: Estonia 1.0 – 1.0 Luxembourg expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Luxembourg to win✗
39%
2.55
2.45
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
1.95
Draw no bet
Luxembourg (draw no bet)✗
52%
1.92
–
Asian handicap
Estonia +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
59%
1.68
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
95%
1.06
–
First team to score
Luxembourg to score first✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
50%
2.00
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
22%
4.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
7%
14.37
–
Recent results
Estonia – last 4
DDWL
29 Sep
@ Bulgaria
0–0
D
26 Sep
@ Iceland
1–1
D
6 Jun
vs Faroe Islands
1–0
W
30 Mar
@ Rwanda
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
25%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Luxembourg – last 6
LWWLWW
29 Sep
vs Iceland
0–3
L
26 Sep
@ Bulgaria
2–1
W
6 Jun
@ Albania
1–0
W
3 Jun
vs Italy
0–1
L
31 Mar
vs Malta
3–0
W
26 Mar
@ Malta
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Estonia and Luxembourg.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Estonia vs Luxembourg?
On our numbers Estonia have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Luxembourg 39%.
How many goals will there be in Estonia vs Luxembourg?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Estonia vs Luxembourg?
Our predicted score is Estonia 1–1 Luxembourg, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Estonia vs Luxembourg?
Estonia vs Luxembourg (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at A. Le Coq Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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