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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Croatia v Spain: numbers & prediction

UEFA Nations League · Europe · Stadion Poljud

Croatia

LLWLW
1–2
FT

Spain

WWWDW
Croatia 14%Draw 18%Spain 68% Expected goals 1.60 – 3.23
64%
Betarazi pick

Both teams to score

Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.75 · Won ✓

6/10Rating
1.75Odds

Picks by market

ResultSpain to win ✓68% · @1.22
Double chanceSpain or draw ✓86% · @1.06
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.75
GoalsOver 3.5 goals ✗71% · fair 1.41
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–3 ✗7% · fair 13.94

Croatia vs Spain: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

19:45 WAT, Tuesday 6 October: Croatia v Spain in the UEFA Nations League, played at Stadion Poljud. In the table, Croatia are 3rd on 3 points after 4 matches; Spain are 1st with 12.

Current form

Croatia, last 5: LLWLW Their latest outing: 0–7 defeat to England, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.5 conceded per game.

Spain, last 5: WWWDW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Czechia, at home. The attack is flying at 2.3 goals per game.

Momentum favours Spain, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.5 for Croatia.

Head to head

When they last met (29 Sep 2026) it ended Spain 4–1 Croatia.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Croatia 1.6 xG, Spain 3.2 xG – a total near 4.8. That is an open game on paper: 86% for three or more goals, 64% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Croatia 14%, draw 18%, Spain 68%.
  • GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.75.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (64%, odds 1.75 – longer than our fair 1.55, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Croatia 1–3 Spain. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Croatia14%fair 7.03 · @9.50
Draw18%fair 5.53 · @5.80
Spain68%fair 1.48 · @1.22
4.83Expected goals
1.60Croatia xG
3.23Spain xG
64%Both score
86%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–37%
1–27%
1–46%
2–36%
2–25%
2–45%

From our goals model: Croatia 1.6 – 3.2 Spain expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultSpain to win ✓68%1.481.22
Double chanceSpain or draw ✓86%1.171.06
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓64%1.551.75 ▲
Draw no betSpain (draw no bet) ✓83%1.21–
Asian handicapSpain -1 (Asian handicap)63%1.60–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓95%1.05–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓86%1.16–
Over/under 3.5 goalsOver 3.5 goals ✗71%1.41–
Over/under 4.5 goalsOver 4.5 goals ✗53%1.89–
First team to scoreSpain to score first ✗66%1.51–
Half-time resultSpain ahead at half-time ✗54%1.85–
Half-time / full-timeHT Spain / FT Spain ✗48%2.08–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–3 ✗7%13.94–

Recent results

Croatia – last 6

LLWLWW
3 Octvs England0–7L
29 Sep@ Spain1–4L
26 Sep@ Czechia2–1W
3 Jul@ Portugal1–2L
27 Junvs Ghana2–1W
24 Jun@ Panama1–0W
1.2Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5

Spain – last 6

WWWDWW
3 Octvs Czechia3–1W
29 Sepvs Croatia4–1W
26 Sep@ England3–2W
19 Julvs Argentina0–0D
14 Jul@ France2–0W
10 Julvs Belgium2–1W
2.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

29 Sep 2026Spain v Croatia4–1
Croatia vs Spain head-to-head page →

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Spain4400+712
2England4301+119
3Croatia4103-103
4Czechia4004-80

More UEFA Nations League predictions

League hub
FT Kazakhstan2 Faroe Islands2 136%2.30X25%2.80239%3.20 1.1–1.2xG GGBoth teams to score 54%@1.95 ✓
FT England3 Czechia0 173%1.11X15%8.00213%19.00 2.8–1.1xG GGBoth teams to score 56%@2.10 ✗
FT Albania2 San Marino1 180%1.03X12%19.0027%51.00 2.9–0.8xG NGNot both teams to score 51%@1.30 ✗
FT Belarus1 Finland0 119%3.80X25%3.20256%1.91 0.9–1.7xG X2Finland or draw 81%@1.25 ✗
FT Moldova0 Slovakia4 111%7.50X23%4.40266%1.36 0.6–1.8xG 2Slovakia to win 66%@1.36 ✓
FT Estonia0 Iceland0 120%5.00X20%3.75261%1.57 0.5–1.3xG 2Iceland to win 61%@1.57 ✗
FT Luxembourg0 Bulgaria2 147%2.05X23%3.10230%3.50 1.3–0.9xG GGBoth teams to score 54%@2.05 ✗
FT Switzerland3 FYR Macedonia0 174%1.10X18%9.0028%23.00 2.1–0.6xG NGNot both teams to score 51%@1.50 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Croatia vs Spain?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.

Who will win Croatia vs Spain?

On our numbers Croatia have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Spain 68%.

How many goals will there be in Croatia vs Spain?

We expect about 4.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 86% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Croatia vs Spain?

Our predicted score is Croatia 1–3 Spain, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.8 goals in total.

When is Croatia vs Spain?

Croatia vs Spain (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Tuesday 6 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Poljud.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.